This week's free bets

Art’s breakdown

Art is fading Julian Erosa's chin. In his view, getting rocked has been the theme throughout Erosa's career.

Lee is the opposite: tough, durable, and he just doesn't go away. Art calls him well-rounded, with very good hands and good defensive grappling.

His read: Lee finds Erosa's chin and gets the finish, and if not, he takes a decision.

Art’s breakdown

Art was eyeing Cody Durden as the underdog all week, but a steam move pushed Durden to favorite, so he passes there.

He likes Tom Nolan as the dog in the main event but expects a better number live, so there is no official pre-fight underdog.

Why live: Nolan gives up his back when he gets up from takedowns, and Moicano has one of the best body-lock back takes. Nolan's shot selection (spinning attacks, jumping knees, lots of kicks) invites takedowns, and Moicano catches kicks. Art expects Moicano to find the body lock in the first couple of rounds.

But Art sees Nolan as the better, more dynamic striker and thinks Moicano slows down later. If Nolan survives the early rear-naked choke threat, Art expects a live line around +175 to +200. His read on the fight: Nolan by knockout in the later rounds.

Art’s breakdown

Fight doesn't go to decision is about -350, so KO at -139 is, in Art's words, immense value on two strikers. You give up only the submission equity.

Jacobe Smith has some submission equity if he gets the grappling going, but Art doesn't think it covers the gap from -350 to -140, and he doesn't see Randy Brown submitting Smith.

Paths to a knockout: Smith is a raw athlete with real power and ground and pound, but he is wild and hittable and slows down a bit. Brown can counter him and finish. Brown doesn't like leg kicks and still gives up takedowns.

Art leans Jacobe Smith by knockout in the fight.