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UFC Fight Night · Main Event · Lightweight · 5 Rounds

Moicano vs Nolan Fight Breakdown: Stats, Styles and What to Watch in the UFC Fight Night Main Event

Moicano vs Nolan breakdown for UFC Fight Night (Oct 31, 2026, Meta APEX): UFCStats numbers, styles, recent form, five things to watch and full tape links.

By FightingStats · · All articles

UFC Fight Night main event: Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan · Lightweight, five rounds · Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas · Prelims 5 PM ET, main card 8 PM ET (UFC.com)

Renato Moicano (21-7-1, 13-7 UFC) headlines Halloween night at the Meta APEX against Tom Nolan (11-1, 5-1 UFC). Moicano landed here after his rematch with Brian Ortega fell apart twice, first at UFC 326 and then at UFC 331 (MMA Fighting, Sep 14, 2026). For Nolan, it is a first UFC main event and a first scheduled five-rounder. This breakdown sticks to the record and the UFCStats numbers: how each fighter wins, where the stats clash, and what to watch. It does not call a winner.

Moicano vs Nolan at a glance

  • Experience: Moicano is 37 with 20 UFC fights. Nolan is 26 with six.
  • Frame: Nolan is a 6'3" southpaw with a 73" reach. Moicano is 5'11" and orthodox with a 72" reach (UFC.com).
  • Moicano's finish: 11 of his 21 pro wins are submissions. In the UFC that includes six rear-naked chokes plus the Duncan submission.
  • Nolan's engine: 4.72 significant strikes landed per minute, with 31.8% of them to the body.
  • Five rounds: Moicano has one 25-minute fight (a decision loss to Rafael dos Anjos in 2022). Nolan has never been past Round 3.

Moicano vs Nolan tale of the tape

  • Renato Moicano: 21-7-1 pro, 13-7 in the UFC. Age 37 (born May 21, 1989, Brasília). 5'11", 72" reach, orthodox. Fights out of American Top Team. Pro wins: 11 submissions, 8 decisions, 2 KO/TKO.
  • Tom Nolan: 11-1 pro, 5-1 in the UFC (his Contender Series knockout is not counted in the UFC record). Age 26 (born March 8, 2000), from Toowoomba, Queensland. 6'3", 73" reach, southpaw. Trains at Team Compton Training Centre. Pro wins: 5 KO/TKO, 5 decisions, 1 submission.
  • Time off: Moicano returns 210 days after submitting Chris Duncan on Apr 4, 2026. Nolan returns 147 days after beating Fares Ziam on Jun 6, 2026.

How Renato Moicano wins fights

Moicano's UFC wins mostly end the same way: he gets on top, takes the back and chokes. His UFC submission wins include six rear-naked chokes, over Tom Niinimäki, Cub Swanson, Damir Hadžović, Jai Herbert, Alexander Hernandez and Brad Riddell, plus the Duncan submission in April 2026.

  • Wrestling to set up the finish: 21 of 52 UFC takedowns (40.4%) and 3:17 of control per 15 minutes. He held Drew Dober down for 10:33 in 2024 and Jai Herbert for 7:35 in 2021.
  • Accurate boxing: 4.10 significant strikes landed per minute at 49.2%, with 59.7% striking defense. His most accurate recent night was Paris in 2024: 50 of 72 against Benoît Saint Denis before a doctor stoppage after Round 2.
  • Comebacks: Jalin Turner dropped him in Round 1 at UFC 300, and Moicano finished him in Round 2 with 5:50 of control.
  • Where he has lost: Three knockouts by punches at distance (José Aldo, Chan Sung Jung, Rafael Fiziev), two submissions (Brian Ortega, Islam Makhachev) and two decisions to grapplers who took him down. Beneil Dariush went 5 for 5 on takedowns in 2025, and dos Anjos controlled him for 13:22 over five rounds in 2022.

How Tom Nolan wins fights

Nolan is long for lightweight and busy. He has won five straight since a Round 1 stoppage loss to Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut.

  • Volume: 4.72 significant strikes landed per minute, well above the 3.11 lightweight average on UFCStats. He landed 84 of 176 against Alex Reyes at UFC 305 and threw 175 against Viacheslav Borshchev at UFC 312.
  • Body work and the clinch: 31.8% of his landed strikes go to the body, and 16.5% come from the clinch. He stopped Victor Martinez with a knee to the body in 2024.
  • A grappling answer: He submitted Charlie Campbell with a rear-naked choke in Round 1 (Performance of the Night, Sep 2025), then beat Fares Ziam in a fight where he controlled Ziam for 6:47 and was controlled for 5:07.
  • Where he is vulnerable: 48.5% striking defense, and both knockdowns he has absorbed in the UFC came in Round 1 (Motta, Martinez). Opponents average 3:50 of control on him per 15 minutes.

Moicano vs Nolan stats (UFCStats)

UFC fights only, from UFCStats.com, through UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott on Oct 17, 2026. Moicano: 20 fights, 188 minutes. Nolan: six fights, 54 minutes.

  • Significant strikes landed per minute: Moicano 4.10, Nolan 4.72.
  • Absorbed per minute: Moicano 3.55, Nolan 3.80.
  • Striking accuracy: Moicano 49.2% (771 of 1,567), Nolan 45.4% (255 of 562).
  • Striking defense: Moicano 59.7%, Nolan 48.5%.
  • Takedowns: Moicano 21 of 52 (40.4%), Nolan 4 of 15 (26.7%).
  • Takedown defense: Moicano 64.3%, Nolan 58.3%.
  • Control per 15 minutes: Moicano 3:17, Nolan 2:43.
  • Controlled per 15 minutes: Moicano 1:58, Nolan 3:50.
  • Knockdowns: Moicano 2 scored, 4 absorbed. Nolan 0 scored, 2 absorbed.
  • Submission attempts: Moicano 7, Nolan 5.
  • Body share of landed strikes: Moicano 9.7%, Nolan 31.8%.

Five things to watch in Moicano vs Nolan

  • The first takedown. Moicano's best UFC nights came once he got on top. Nolan concedes 3:50 of control per 15 minutes, and both Ziam (5:07) and Reyes (4:16) controlled him for long stretches.
  • Standing pace. On the FightingStats Tape Index's approximate standing rate (fight time minus both fighters' control time), Nolan has landed 6 or more significant strikes per standing minute in all six UFC fights. Moicano has been under 4.3 in each of his last six.
  • Body shots. Nearly a third of Nolan's landed strikes go to the body. Body work has never been a big part of Moicano's own offense (9.7% of his landed strikes).
  • Early danger on both sides. Both of Nolan's UFC knockdowns absorbed came in Round 1. Moicano has been stopped by punches three times and was dropped by Turner in the first round at UFC 300.
  • Rounds 4 and 5. Nolan has gone the full 15 minutes three times and won all three on the cards, but has never fought a fourth round. Moicano's only fourth and fifth rounds came in the dos Anjos loss.

Moicano vs Nolan recent form

  • Moicano, last five: W Chris Duncan, submission R2 3:14 (Apr 4, 2026) · L Beneil Dariush, unanimous decision (Jun 28, 2025) · L Islam Makhachev, submission R1 4:05, lightweight title, one day's notice (Jan 18, 2025) · W Benoît Saint Denis, TKO (doctor stoppage) after R2 (Sep 28, 2024) · W Jalin Turner, TKO R2 4:11 (Apr 13, 2024).
  • Nolan, last five: W Fares Ziam, unanimous decision (Jun 6, 2026) · W Charlie Campbell, rear-naked choke R1 4:08 (Sep 27, 2025) · W Viacheslav Borshchev, unanimous decision (Feb 8, 2025) · W Alex Reyes, unanimous decision (Aug 17, 2024) · W Victor Martinez, TKO (knee to the body) R1 3:50 (May 18, 2024).

Watch the tape: Moicano vs Nolan film

The FightingStats Tape Index has every career bout for both fighters, with film links where verified film exists: 29 career bouts for Moicano (20 with film) and 12 for Nolan (11 with film). Across the full card, that is 24 fighters, 394 career bouts and 266 with film.

Go deeper: Moicano vs Nolan stats comparison · Tape Index: every career bout on the card, with film · Full Moicano vs Nolan matchup report (PDF) · Co-main: Brown vs Smith breakdown · Results

More breakdowns from this card:

Moicano vs Nolan FAQ

When and where is Moicano vs Nolan?

Saturday, Oct 31, 2026, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. UFC.com lists the prelims at 5 PM ET and the main card at 8 PM ET. Moicano vs Nolan is the five-round main event.

What are Renato Moicano's and Tom Nolan's records?

Renato Moicano is 21-7-1 as a pro and 13-7 in the UFC. Tom Nolan is 11-1 as a pro and 5-1 in the UFC, on a five-fight win streak.

How tall is Tom Nolan compared with Renato Moicano?

Nolan is 6'3" with a 73-inch reach and fights southpaw. Moicano is 5'11" with a 72-inch reach and fights orthodox, per UFC.com.

How does Renato Moicano usually win?

By submission. 11 of his 21 pro wins are submissions. In the UFC that includes six rear-naked chokes plus the Duncan submission in April 2026.

Has Tom Nolan fought five rounds before?

No. Nolan has gone the full three rounds three times in the UFC and won all three on the scorecards, but this is his first scheduled five-round fight.

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