UFC 334 is tonight at Madison Square Garden, with Ciryl Gane defending against Josh Hokit in the main event. These are the live-betting spots I'm watching, starting with the main event and going down the card: what to look for, when the number might come in, and which side I'd be looking to play.
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit (Main Event)
This fight is going to come down to Ciryl Gane's takedown defense and Josh Hokit's cardio. I'm watching Gane's inside low kick and the jab. That's going to be an accumulation of damage. Hokit doesn't deal with leg kicks well, and he did gas a little going into the Curtis Blaydes fight.
Watch how much energy Hokit spends trying to get takedowns and keep Gane down. If he's working hard for those takedowns and Gane is getting back up, Gane is the live-betting target into the later rounds — cardio, leg kicks, accumulated damage.
I think Gane gets taken down in Round 1. If he's down a round, that can be a good live-bet spot on Gane going into Round 2 at plus money or even money.
Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes (Co-Main Event)
There are a lot of unknowns in how both of these women are going to look, so you're probably better off live betting this one anyway.
Kayla Harrison is going to look for takedowns. I'm watching the distance Amanda Nunes keeps. I imagine Nunes is on the back foot, circling. Harrison has to close that distance, get to the body lock or the clinch, and get the takedowns from there. She probably has more success earlier than she does later.
Nunes has slowed down in a couple of fights, but I don't think she took those seriously. If she had a full, serious camp, I think she might have the better cardio, especially with Harrison cutting down to 135. Watch Harrison's cardio as she starts to slow, and watch Nunes' leg kicks and damage, similar to the Gane fight. I think the wrestler here slows down a little into the later rounds.
Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui
I'll be watching for Yousri Belgaroui's leg kicks. I think Caio Borralho is going to circle on the outside, stay out of damage, and look for takedowns. I think he gets them. And when Belgaroui works back up, I think he exposes his back and Borralho takes it.
The live line on Borralho may never come in. If he shoots, gets a takedown in Round 1, and starts to dominate, that number may not come back. The spot is if Borralho doesn't shoot right away and Belgaroui starts landing early in Round 1 — you might get a pick'em on Borralho. That line is going to move quickly as soon as he gets the takedown and holds it. If he gets Belgaroui flat on his back, both shoulders on the mat, I think that's a Borralho round. I don't think Belgaroui is getting back up.
Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland
I'm fading the Round 1 knockout for Uros Medic. I know he's got a bunch of them, but the level of competition on those knockouts is not comparable to Kevin Holland. Holland is durable and hard to put away.
The live-bet side here is Holland. I think the concerns about Medic's cardio are overblown — I think his cardio is fine and he can take this into the later rounds — but I'm looking at live betting Holland. He's got leg kicks and some grappling upside.
Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule
This one can go a couple of ways. Either Bilal Hasan just mauls Luis Gurule on the feet — he's so much faster and stronger — and puts him away with a Round 1 knockout, or Gurule grapples, tries to get Hasan down, and tries to slow him down and delay the pace.
You can't live bet Hasan at −1000, so you want to be ready if Gurule gets an early takedown or gets on top. I think Hasan does more damage on the feet, but Gurule could grind out a win. I wouldn't be looking to lay super juice here. The ideal spot is Hasan close to pick'em if he's down a round.
Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson vs Charles Radtke
I think Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson is going to stay on the outside, sticking and moving, point fighting the way he usually does. Charles Radtke is going to be looking for takedowns. He's attempted multiple takedowns in his last couple of fights, and when you're fighting Wonderboy, that's the path to beating him.
You can live bet Radtke knowing he'll look for those takedowns, or try to time them. If he struggles to get a takedown, then you can potentially live bet Thompson. I think this comes down to the takedowns.
I don't see a lot of finishing upside for Thompson, which is why we have the finish-only on Radtke. If Radtke gets the takedowns, he can ground and pound him, submit him, or win a decision. I'm not confident on the method, but I think Radtke is a live underdog here, and more likely to finish than Wonderboy is.
Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan
This live line can go both ways. I do think Drew Dober is a live dog. Chris Duncan could look for takedowns and get Dober down. I think Duncan is probably the better grappler, and I don't know if Dober gets back up if he gets taken down. That's my concern.
On the feet, Dober is live to knock out anybody. He's pretty durable. I give him the durability edge, so you might get a good plus-money number on Dober if he's down a round and has to find a finish. I'd be looking for takedowns from Duncan, or potentially Dober into the later rounds at big money.
Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney
This is the easiest of the bunch. Terrance McKinney is going to come out super hot — knees, big strikes — and I think he puts Jim Miller away in Round 1. If he doesn't, Miller has to be a priority live bet.
The cat's out of the bag. Everybody knows that, so you're probably looking at Miller around pick'em when he's down a round, or maybe even −150 down a round, or even after a 10-8 Round 1, because everybody is going to be looking to live bet Miller. Get on it fast if it looks like he's going to survive. The best way to play Miller is on the live line, not pre-fight.
Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida
I'd be watching Cesar Almeida's leg kicks. Donte Johnson doesn't deal with leg kicks too well, so watch if those start to add up. I think Almeida stays on the outside, circling, trying to avoid Johnson's power.
Johnson could grapple. I'm not convinced he's a grappler, but he might try it here because Almeida is the better striker. He could bum-rush him or look to wrestle. He's not the most technical wrestler, so he could still get takedowns. I think Almeida can work back up to his feet.
The live bet on Almeida is based on leg-kick damage, but I'd be wary. I've seen and heard that Johnson has pretty good cardio for a big guy and can go multiple rounds at a high pace. This is really about live betting Almeida on the low kicks if Johnson starts switching stances or starts limping.
Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon
Melquizael Costa is mainly a kicker, so I'm looking at the accumulation of damage from the kicks — body kicks or low kicks — on Jared Gordon. I think Gordon might look for takedowns, so you might actually look for Gordon late.
I think Costa's finishing upside is overinflated. I don't think he's much of a finisher, so I do think this one could go later, into a decision.
Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita
I think Bia Mesquita's takedowns come pretty easy. Macy Chiasson's takedown defense doesn't look like there's much there, but when she does get taken down, it looks like she holds on. You can probably get Mesquita on the live line before the takedown. After the takedown, I think that line goes super in favor of Mesquita, down to −500 or −600, especially if Chiasson can't get up.
I have a sneaky suspicion Chiasson holds on and doesn't get submitted, and Mesquita might win a decision. In terms of live betting, I'm not sure you can play it after that first takedown. Keep an eye on Mesquita's cardio, and maybe take Chiasson in Round 3, but that really depends on the cardio.
Alatengheili vs Juan Díaz
No real strong lean on the live line here. I think this one goes to a decision, and I think Juan Díaz wins the decision.
Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches
No real strong lean on the live line in Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches.
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