UFC290 Brendon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno vs Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja Detailed Breakdown and Best Bets
The UFC Flyweight Championship is on the line at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada in the co-main event on July 8, 2023. Current Champion, Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno will look to defend his belt against top contender Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja.
Brandon Moreno is the reigning and two-time UFC flyweight champion and one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. The 29-year-old Mexican, nicknamed “The Assassin Baby”, has a professional record of 21 wins, 6 losses and 2 draws, with 16 of his victories coming by knockout or submission. Moreno made history in June 2021 when he became the first Mexico-born champion in the UFC by defeating Deiveson Figueiredo in a rematch at UFC 263. He defended his title for the second time in January 2023, when he stopped Figueiredo again by TKO due to a doctor’s stoppage at UFC 283.
However, Moreno is 0-2 in fights against Pantoja, with the first matchup back on the The Ultimate Fighter Season 24, where Moreno was the last fighter to be picked and Pantoja was the first fighter to be picked. Expecting an easy fight, Moreno actually won round 1 before losing by submission in round 2. Because this was considered an “Exhibition Bout”, this is not considered an official loss on Moreno’s record. Moreno has greatly improved since his appearance on the Ultimate Fighter in 2016.
Alexandre Pantoja is one of the top contenders in the UFC flyweight division and a former champion of Resurrection Fighting Alliance and Shooto Brazil. The 33-year-old Brazilian, known as “The Cannibal”, has a professional record of 25 wins, 5 losses and no draws, with 18 of his victories coming by knockout or submission. Pantoja entered the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions, where he reached the semifinals. He has since won nine fights in the promotion, including notable wins over Brandon Moreno, Wilson Reis and Ulka Sasaki. Pantoja earned his first UFC title shot by submitting Alex Perez in just 91 seconds at UFC 277 on July 30, 2022.
- UFC: 290
- UFC 290 Date: Saturday, July 8, 2023
- When is UFC 290?: 10:00 pm ET
- Where is UFC 290?: T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas, NV
- TV Channel: Pay Per View
- UFC Main Event: Alex Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez
- UFC Stats: Brendon Moreno 21-6-2 | Alexandre Pantoja 25-5-0
- UFC 290: Moreno (-170) | Pantoja (+145)
UFC 290: Moreno vs Pantoja Predictions and Picks
The first thing to note is that Pantoja has never been past round 3 and has shown he can slow down later in fights like in round 3 against Figueiredo in 2019, or round 2 of the Askar Askarov fight. In his most recent fights against Perez, Pantoja came in like a wrecking ball landing 8 of 12 strikes thrown in the first 20 seconds of the fight before getting the takedown and submission. For Pantoja I worry about if he can keep up that pace for 25 minutes knowing that Brandon Moreno has been scheduled to go 25 minutes in each of his last 5 fights and one of Moreno’s weapons is his cardio and the pace that he can keep. It’s also worth noting that outside of the exhibition submission loss to Pantoja in 2016, Brandon Moreno has never been finished in his 29 professional fights. This includes the 1.3 hours of fighting with Deiveson Figueiredo who has a finish rate of 85% amongst his wins and is probably one of the hardest hitters at Flyweight.
Pantoja does have 8 KO wins, but is known more for his high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (BJJ), with 40% of his wins coming by submission. On one side, Moreno has never been finished and only 3% of his total analyzed fight time and 20% of total time grappling was spent on his back. On the other side, Moreno has not faced anyone with Pantoja’s level of BJJ since their last fight in 2018. Over his UFC career, Moreno has shown a Takedown defense of only 67%, so there is a path to victory for Pantoja through grappling.
Does Pantoja have what it takes to become Champion?
Striking-wise, both fighters stand in orthodox, with a combined 0.1% of their time in southpaw stance, meaning the rear outside leg kicks are open. Both Moreno and Pantoja both throw the rear low kick 7% of the time, but the difference being Moreno throws the rear high kick only 0.67%, whereas Pantoja is closer to 17%. This is a big discrepancy, but will probably continue into this fight noting that if Moreno throws the high kick, it will open him up to get the kick caught and taken down. I expect a heavier kicking game from Pantoja where he throws 2.18 kicks per minute, compared to 0.64 from Moreno.
In terms of striking variety, Pantoja can be pretty basic, with 62% of his total strikes either a jab, cross or a jab-cross (1-2). Moreno seems like more of a head-hunter with 85% of strikes thrown towards the head compared to 76% by Pantoja, which I think is more of a by-product of Pantoja’s 10% leg target percentage, compared to 5% from Moreno.
Free UFC Picks — UFC Best Bets For UFC 290: Volkanovski vs Rodriguez
Overall, this fight will depend on the pace that Pantoja chooses to come out with. If he comes out hot like he has in his most recent fights, I question how he will look after round 2 when he can’t put away Moreno who has never been finished and been in numerous 5 round fights. If we assume the fight goes 5 rounds, I think Moreno should be a clear favourite to win rounds 3, 4 and 5. So even if the first 2 rounds are fairly close, I think Moreno will start to pull away later in the fight. Pantoja’s best path to victory would be an early takedown or a back take, but as the fight goes on, I think the chances of this drop. For Moreno, I think he just needs to push a pace early. If it stays standing maybe creating forward pressure and forcing Pantoja to move backward, which also makes the takedown attempts harder. Or if there are early grappling exchanges, to create scrambles and make Pantoja grapple early. Into the later rounds a Moreno finish is live. My prediction is Brandon Moreno wins by unanimous decision. Here’s my breakdown of the fight:
- Moreno by TKO: 20%
- Moreno by sub: 10%
- Moreno by decision: 35%
- Pantoja by TKO: 5%
- Pantoja by Submission: 20%
- Pantoja by decision: 10%
Which translates to:
- Brandon Moreno moneyline: -186 or better
- Alexandre Pantoja moneyline: +186 or better
- Fight goes to decision: +122 or better
- Fight does not go to decision: -122 or better
- Moreno by TKO / Pantoja by sub: +400 or better
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