UFC London Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura Breakdown and Best Bets

Tom Aspinall: The comeback of a rising star 

Tom Aspinall returns to the octagon this Saturday, July 22, after a devastating knee injury that ended his five-fight winning streak in the UFC. 

Aspinall (12-3 MMA, 5-1 UFC) was on the verge of breaking into the top five of the UFC heavyweight rankings when he faced Curtis Blaydes in the main event of UFC Fight Night 208 in London last July. However, just 15 seconds into the fight, Aspinall suffered a freak accident that tore his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and medial collateral ligament (MCL) in his left knee, forcing him to tap out and hand Blaydes the victory 

The injury required surgery and months of rehabilitation, but Aspinall never lost his focus or motivation. He worked hard to recover his strength and mobility, and he is now ready to resume his quest for UFC glory.  

Aspinall, who turned 30 in April, is one of the most promising talents in the UFC heavyweight division. He has a background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, wrestling and boxing, and he holds a black belt under his father Andy Aspinall, who is also his coach at Team Kaobon in Manchester. He made his UFC debut in July 2020, and he quickly established himself as a knockout artist, finishing four of his first five opponents in the first round. He also showed his submission skills when he choked out former champion Andrei Arlovski in February 2021, earning his second Performance of the Night bonus 

Aspinall has a loyal fan base in his home country, and he will have their support when he steps into the cage at The O2 arena for the second time in his career. He hopes to put on a show for them and prove that he is still a force to be reckoned with in the heavyweight division. He will face a tough challenge in Tybura (24-7 MMA, 11-6 UFC), and has won seven of his last eight fights. 

Although Tybura is on a decent run of wins, none of his prior opponents are comparable to Tom Aspinall and this is a huge step up in competition for Tybura, who doesn't have the best tape. 

Starting with the win over 7-5 Greg Hardy, who is no longer with the UFC. Hardy actually looked like the faster and more technical striker winning round 1, but one thing about Marcin Tybura, is that he's pretty durable. He weathered the storm in round 1 and in round 2, eventually found the takedown for a ground and pound finish. Similar story in his next next against Walt Harris, where Tybura ate some big shots early in round 1 and Tyrbura was able to survive until Harris gifted Tybura a leg after a high kick that put Harris down on his back. As Harris turned to get back up, Tybura jumped the back and won by ground and pound again. 

Against a striker with no real cardio concerns, Volkov cruised to a decision win after stuffing 16 takedown attempts from Marcin Tybura who was never even close to finishing one of those attempts. At one point in the first round, Volkov reversed the takedown attempt and landed on top. Tybura's default reaction was to close guard and control posture riding out the round. This is important to note. As Tybura did something similar against Alexandr Romanov in round 1.  

I would categorize Tybura as average almost everywhere except overall durability, which he's relied on to get him deep into fights. Tom Aspinall looks to be better almost everywhere. Aspinall is light on his feet bouncing in and out like a middleweight. Uses power double leg takedowns if he wants the fight on the ground, and also a BJJ blackbelt that looks for submissions.  

In a 5 round fight against a durable opponent like Tybura, I think Aspinall will look to pace himself and stay on the outside picking Tybura apart. Round 1 could stay on the feet if Aspinall wants it to, but it could hit the ground if Aspinall thinks it's an easier path to victory or it's possible Tybura looks for the takedown and Aspinall reverses. I don't really see Tybura having much grappling success after struggling against non-grapplers like Hardy and Volkov.  

Given how durable Tybura can be, I think the submission could be live for Aspinall. Tybura hasn't fought anybody with any grappling skills like Aspinall since maybe Werdum in 2017.  

This fight does look like a mismatch and mostly a set-up fight for Tom Aspinall returning from injury. I think there are 2 ways that Tom can lose this fight. First is that his knee isn't fully recovered and there's another knee injury after kick lands. The second way, is if Tybura relies on his durability and Tom gets caught up in the moment and gasses out going for a finish, but even then Tybura doesn't look like he carries much power into the later rounds. Outside of these two unlikely scenarios, I think Tom Aspinall cruises to a win.