UFC290 Jalin Turner vs Dan Hooker Breakdown and Best Bets
UFC290 Jalen Turner vs Dan Hooker: A clash of styles and stances
The lightweight division is one of the most exciting and competitive in the UFC, and two of its contenders are set to face off in July. Jalen Turner and Dan Hooker were originally scheduled to fight in March, but the bout was postponed due to Hooker’s broken hand. Now, both fighters have had more time to recover and study each other, which could make for a fascinating matchup.
Turner and Hooker have very different physical attributes and fighting styles. Turner is a towering 6’3" southpaw with a 77-inch reach, while Hooker is a 6’0" orthodox fighter with a 75-inch reach. Turner likes to use his long limbs to keep his opponents at bay and land powerful left crosses and high kicks. Hooker prefers to mix it up with punches, elbows, knees and leg kicks, and has a knack for finding openings in his opponent’s defense.
The fight could be decided by how well each fighter can adapt to the other’s stance and range. Hooker has fought 5 southpaws in his last 6 fights, but he has also struggled more against them, going 3-3 in his UFC career. Hooker will have to close the distance and avoid Turner’s straight left hand, which he throws 16% of the time (the most of any strike). He will also have to watch out for Turner’s left high kick, which he throws 15.7% of the time (the second most).
Turner, on the other hand, will have to deal with Hooker’s leg kicks, which he throws 21% of the time (the second most of any strike). Turner has shown a weakness in checking or avoiding leg kicks, absorbing 46 of 48 leg strikes thrown for 96% of them over his last five fights. Hooker has landed 81% of the 78 leg kicks thrown over his last six fights, and has done well against other southpaws with his inside low kick. If Hooker can chop down Turner’s legs and limit his movement, he could slow down his offense and create openings for his own strikes.
Another factor that could play a role in the fight is grappling. Hooker has shown more willingness to shoot for takedowns than Turner, especially against strikers. Over his last six fights, Hooker has attempted 16 takedowns and secured 6:35 of top control time, compared to Turner’s four takedown attempts and 1:54 of top control time over his last five fights. Hooker could use his wrestling to take Turner down and neutralize his reach advantage, or to threaten with submissions and force scrambles.
However, Hooker is nowhere near the grappler Gamrot is and Gamrot still struggled going 4/12 on takedown attempts. Hooker may find some success getting Turner to the mat, but Hooker’s 0.3 submission average, means that Turner will likely survive the ground and get back to his feet. In addition, Turner’s long limps makes the guillotine a danger for Hooker if he leaves his neck out on the takedown attempts. Turner does not proactively look to grapple, but he will defensively wrestle and jump a neck if it presents itself.
However, grappling is not without risks for Hooker. Turner has a 100% finish rate in his career, with 69% of his wins coming by TKO and 31% by submission.
Overall, I think Hooker’s success relies heavily on either a leg kick heavy gameplan or multiple takedowns and control time, both of which are paths to a decision win. Turner is still improving and has been sparring with Kamzat Chimaev after his loss to Gamrot. I expect Turner to find a finish, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Turner win his first decision.
Jalin Turner vs Dan Hooker Best Bets
Breakdown:
- STRIKING: i give a small edge to Turner. Longer reach and more varied attacks. Hooker is good at his standard combos, 32, jabs and rear high and low kicks. Turner is more creative with his strikes mixing in a variety of strikes.
- TAKEDOWNS: edge to hooker simply from having success in winning fights with it. Turner has not initiated the grappling but can turn his defensive wrestling offensive, but will sink in the sub if the opportunity presents itself. Hooker is more likely to initiate the TDs, however, turners length may pose a problem to hooker trying to close the distance
- GRAPPLING: hooker will use more top position if he gets the fight to the ground. Doesn't really fish for subs or pass guard
- CARDIO: turner has a shorter average fight time, but looked fine in a 3 roudn grappling fight against gamrot, whereas when hooker starts to get hit, he really slows down, losing a lot of power into the later round
- CHIN: Edge to turner, simply because we haven't seen him really get rocked yet. He's taken some clean shots and been ok. Hooker has been in some wars. After the Poirer beating, Hooker has allowed 3 first-round stoppages in his last 3 losses (some are justified by Allen / Chandler / Islam)
- IMPROVEMENT: has to go to Turner who keeps improving fight after fight. Hooker looks to be past his prime. Although training with Izzy and Volk should keep him competitive
- Hooker WINS by mixing in the wrestling and grappling, getting and keeping some top control, while also staying competitive on the feet. Hooker could also implement a leg kick heavy game plan
- Turner WINS turner will have to play the striking game and stay on the outside. Turners looked great against other strikers in Uros Medic, Mullarky, riddel (was quick), but lost to frevola
Breakdown:
- Turner KO: 30%
- Turner Sub: 10%
- Turner Dec: 25%
- Hooker KO: 15%
- Hooker Sub: 0%
- Hooker Dec: 20%
Translates to:
- Turner ML -186 or better
This fight promises to be a thrilling clash of styles and stances, with both fighters having strengths and weaknesses that could be exploited by the other. Who will emerge victorious? Tune in on July 8th to find out!
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