UFC290 Jimmy Crute vs Alonzo Menefield Breakdown and Bets
Jimmy Crute vs Alonzo Menifield: A battle of knockout artists
The UFC light heavyweight division is heating up, and two of its rising stars are set to collide in July. Jimmy Crute and Alonzo Menifield are both known for their explosive power and finishing ability, and they will look to make a statement when they face each other in the octagon.
Crute is a 26-year-old Australian who has a 12-3-1 record in MMA, with 9 of his wins coming by stoppage. He made his UFC debut in 2018 and has gone 4-3-1 since, with all 7 wins and losses coming by knockout or submission. He is currently ranked #12 in the UFC light heavyweight rankings.
Menifield is a 35-year-old American who has a 13-3-1 record in MMA, with 9 of his wins coming by knockout. He is a former football player who turned to MMA after his career was cut short by injuries. He made his UFC debut in 2019 after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series, and has since gone 6-3-1 in the promotion.
This fight is a rematch of their February 2023 matchup where they fought to a draw. Alonso Menifield would have won a decision, had he not gotten a point deduction for grabbing the fence to prevent a takedown. Menifield would have cashed as a +155 dog in that fight, whereas now the betting line for the rematch is about even money on both sides. But here’s why I think one of these sides has value.
Going into the original matchup back in February, I thought Jimmy Crute was the better side because of his grappling and cardio upside. I was really impressed by Crute’s UFC debut when he fought Paul Craig, who has 81% of his 16 wins by submissions and opponents are scared to jump into Craig’s guard. Not only did Crute jump into Craig’s guard, he dominated Paul Craig on the ground passing the guard and moving into full mount while also reversing position twice on Craig. Paul Craig has only been submitted once, and that was Jimmy Crute.
Crute was able to dominate the wrestling exchanges early, however, Menified did show a good get-up game. In the clinch, Menified was the stronger fighter, and where Menifield got most of his control time.
Most will remember Menifiled losing a point in the 3rd round causing the fight to be a draw, but also remember that Crute controlled the grappling in the first and bag a huge mistake of jumping on the guillotine and giving up top position. I think if Crute keeps that top position away from the cage, Crute goes on to win the fight.
In addition, I think it was a perfect fight for Menifield. He got taken down early but was close enough to the fence that he was able to use the cage to prevent the back take. Then Crute got another TD in the middle of the Octagon but Menifield was able to scramble back up. Any time Menifield got taken down, he used the fence to wall-walk back up. With 2 minutes left, Crute has a standing guillotine but falls back into guard and gives up top position. Crute immediately sweeps and almost reverses the position and lets Menifield back up. Crute starts to slow down from the grappling and throws a lazy high kick causing him to fall backward and give up the position. Menifield uses this position to rain down ground and pound. As Crute stands back up, he gets rocked by a right hand and knocked down, but even when he was rocked, and on his knees he grabbed Menifield's legs and got another takedown at the end of the round.
Crute showed some recovery at the start of round 2, but I think he doesn’t fully recover and round 2 becomes similar to round 1 with Menifield scoring another knockdown and top control time. Crute becomes exhausted and gets beat up, which is a bad look. Almost a 10-8 round for Menifield, but Crute again is able to cage wrestle and get a takedown at the end of the round.
Into the 3rd, Crute even though he took a beat was still able to win the grappling exchanges and win the 3rd round. Again I think a lot went right for Menifield and Crute took some of Menifield’s biggest shots and didn’t go down. I think it would be harder for Menifield to replicate the same fight vs Crute not getting hit, or making better decisions to win the rounds. Crute didn’t cover the -190 price tag in the first fight, but now he’s a dog. I think there’s more room for Crute to improve as the 9 years younger fighter.
- Crute KO: 15%
- Crute sub: 20%
- Crute Dec: 20%
- Menified KO: 25%
- Menifield sub: 0%
- Menifield dec: 20%
official bet: Jimmy Crute +100 $500(1 unit) to win $500
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