UFC290 Marcin Prachnio vs Vitor Petrino Breakdown

Marcin Prachnio has had a roller coaster of a UFC career entering the UFC at 30 years old, but with a record of 12-2, with 8 of those as first-round KOs. A black belt in karate, Prachnio appears to have heavy hands and a decent kicking arsenal. However, he starts his UFC run with 3 first-round knockouts in a row. What was clear from the tape, was that Prachnio doesn't have the greatest striking defense. He likes to stand in orthodox but keeps his lead left hand low, especially when engaging in his strikes. It’s the reason he got knockdown then got knocked out by Sam Alvey with the check R hook. Ankaleav landed the same check R hook from Southpaw that lead to the KO finish. The mike rodriguez KO was from elbows in the clinch, but Prachnio did get dropped by that R hand from Rountree in their match. Prachnio dealt with adversity and came back to win that fight. Mostly from Rountree getting out volume 102 strikes from Prachnio to 49 from Roundtree. Prachnio used a heavy kicking game approach landing 40/46 strikes to the legs. Prachnio cashed as a +290 dog in that fight. 

Then gets Ike Villanueva (who is 1-5 in his last 6). Ike also had Prachnio rocked in that first round until prachnio went back to his success and started throwing the power outside low kicks, Ike didn't like those and wasn't able to stand at the end of the first round. Into the 2 round, Ike was focused on the leg, prachnio switches to southpaw and landed a big kick to the body. Against philipe lins, lins exposed Prachnio's strength of schedule of not facing a grappler. Lins took prachnio down early in round 1, causing prachnio to wrestle in round 1. In round 2, prachnio was visibly gassed at the start of the round, Lins held onto a slightly better gas tank. Prachnio was too gassed to have any power on his shots or throw heavy kicks. Prachnio even started looking for the TD in hopes of getting his cardio back in top position. That never happened. Lins rode the cardio dump to a decision win. Now don't get me started on the William Knight fight. That fight looked like a match from street fighter, not the good kind. The kind where you start a match, and then the second player gets called away and has to leave, and his character stands there for 3 rounds. Although William knight didn't move, prachnio decided to stick to the game plan and not take risks throwing 83% of total strikes thrown were leg kicks. Prachnio cruised to a decision win but never pressed the gas content with staying out of danger.

I'm hoping that prachnio coming off 2 back to back fights that went to decision, we may get a decent opener on the total.

Vitor Petrino is a heavy-handed power striker, that can also mix in his grappling. His MMA fighting career started out with some can-crushing like most stars starting out. Took a big step up against Antigulov who he was also able to finish. Although Petrino is 8-0 with 75% of his wins by TKO (50% in round 1), Petrino is very hittable

Power striker that has been looking to grapple at times as well. Wants to show hes more than just a power striker. One the ground he isn't looking for subs, more gnp and more used to control opponents.

Tends to use more power than technique to reverse or escape positions. Last fight vs turkalj, he was in some bad spots, getting his back taken, getting dropped. He was able to fight through it, but don’t see petrino being a huge fav because of it. Against a strong striker like prachnio, anything is live. Thats 2 fights in a row where petrino has been dropped and in trouble.

Big step up in competition from region guys to turkalj (who is still a regional guy to prachnio, who is 3-4 in the UFC. Pracnio has 69% of wins by TKO, but also 67% of loses. Will be looking at the totals, or finishes round 1.

If petrino comes out aggressive, first guy to land clean probably wins. Pracnio ko rnd 1 is live, possible that petrino comes out looking to grapple, but it will drain his cardio faster, practnio is a big guy as well.

U1.5 is worth a shot,

I think prachnio will try to lean on the success he's found so far (if it ain't broke don’t fix it) and he may try to work leg kicks from the outside. Petrino will have 2 options, close the distance and strike, in which both guys are live for a first round KO. Both guys are chinny, but I favor the speed and power of petrino especially in round 1. The other option is that petrino could look to grapple, and saw that lins set out the gameplan that prachnio is a fish on his back. If petrino looks for the TD, expect some nasty GnP from top position. This early grappling could affect both practnio and petrino as both guys have had cardio issues in the past. If either guy gassed before the other, then the finish should also be live if the fight gets out of the first round. THere is an off chance both guys gas and then it becomes a slopfest and bad beat. The last option is that prachnio tries to stay at kicking ranging, throwing all his different kicks and wears on petrino down. I still think that petrino is no william knight and will have to engage if he feels his legs starting to go.

With 75% of petrinos wins coming from KO, and 67% of prachnios losses coming by KO, I predict petrino by 1st round KO

• Petrino KO: 40%
• Petrino sub: 10%
• Petrino dec: 15%
• Prachnio Ko: 20%
• Prachnio sub: 0%
• Prachnio dec: 15%