UFC290 Robbie Lawler vs Niko Price Breakdown and bets

Niko Price has been around for a while and has had an interesting UFC career, but it is still hard to gauge how good he really is. He often weaponizes his cardio, taking his opponents into deep waters, where he tends to have the better stamina. In almost every fight that gets to the third round, somebody is gassing hard. That, combined with the fact that Price comes forward after losing the first two rounds, makes him exciting. Price was down two rounds to Luque, Pereira, and Rowe, where he came forward in round three, almost finding the finish against Rowe and Pereira. He won the Alex Oliveira fight in the last 45 seconds, where Price found a takedown.

Price almost exclusively fights from an orthodox stance. He will rarely switch to Southpaw, where he will only throw a kick and quickly switch back to Orthodox. From orthodox, he uses a lot of 1-2s, which are close to 3-4s with how wide those punches come. He uses the jab, but it’s not really snappy, more something to keep the pace up. Overall, Price looks very slow, and almost in every fight he gets tagged early. He was slower than Rowe, even Alex Pereira, and Luque. Cerrone had his moments. Price’s latest UFC wins are over Alex Oliveira, who is no longer in the UFC; a draw with Cerrone after losing a point; and KOing the chinny James Vick (by upkick) and Tim Means. Not the most impressive resume. On the flip side, his losses are to legit competition in Luque, Pereira, and Rowe.

Price is 15-6 with only three fights going to decision, but those three were in his last four fights. I want to say that Price is looking like he’s slowing down, not having a ton of power on his strikes. He lacks speed and power, but has cardio and a decent chin and always moves forward.

Robbie Lawler is a legend still fighting at 41 years old and didn’t look bad in his last fight against Barberena. Lawler looked good and fast and actually won the first round. Similar to Price, Barberena has a good chin and keeps a crazy cardio pace. Lawler has actually fought a lot of volume guys recently as well. He absorbed 147 strikes from Barberena, 160 from Nick Diaz (three rounds), 62 from Magny, 179 from Covington, zero from Askren lol and 172 from RDA. Lawler is 2-6 in his last eight UFC fights, with two wins over a four-year layoff Nick Diaz and Donald Cerrone. So it’s a tough fight to call.

Lawler tried to come out looser in his last fight, light on his feet, but when it became a firefight, he reverted back to his old ways of brawling. Lawler started to move in and out of range, where he had previously stayed in the pocket and rolled with the punches.

Against the volume guys, Lawler was content with taking the volume early and shelling up while waiting to counter. He will eat four or five shots while trying to land one.

Lawler will have the power advantage, and I’d say even faster in round one. The only knock is the cardio of Lawler, but he actually looked fine against Colby who grappled him for five rounds. If RDA, Colby and Magny didn’t find the submission after having Lawler’s back, I doubt Price will get the submission.

• Lawler KO: 25%. I think the KO is live, especially in round one; it drops off a lot going into rounds two and three.
• Lawler sub: 0%. I don’t see it coming unless it’s a club-and-sub; Lawler doesn’t shoot for takedowns or hunt for submissions in top control.
• Lawler dec: 20%. He could win a decision if Price’s chin holds up; both guys could slow down and both guys’ chins are decent enough to be a firefight for rounds two and three and nobody goes down.
• Price KO: 25%. It has to be live, but more live as the fight goes on; especially in round three.
• Price sub: 5%. OK, I was going to say zero but don’t think Lawler gets submitted.
• Price dec: 25%. It could happen for Price; Price should win round three; he could lose round one and it comes down to round two. Lawler does a good job of rolling with the punches.

Bets to Consider:

• Draw
• Lawler KO round one
• Price KO round three
• Over 1.5 rounds and over 2.5 rounds