UFC290 Yazmin Jauregui vs Denise Gomes Breakdown and bets
Yazmin Jauregui is a striker from Mexico. In one word, she is pressure. She always comes forward with pressure and volume. She can stay on the outside, but when she starts blitzing, it’s five or six punch combos with her head up in the air. She has no one-punch KO power, but more death by a thousand cuts. She has a couple of TKO wins where the ref jumps in. The stoppage will depend on the ref. She is open to getting countered when she’s blitzing. She got dropped by a counter by Nunes. For someone with the volume and pressure of Jauregui, her cardio looks fine, having gone to a decision with Lucindo and looking fine in round three.
However, we haven’t really seen her in a grappling-heavy fight yet. I have noticed that Jauregui wants nothing to do with the ground or clinch. She can defend a takedown well against the cage, or use the cage to pop back up.
Her top control is a result of defensive grappling, such as stopping a takedown, or landing a knockdown and following her opponent to the ground. From top control, she is only looking for ground-and-pound; I don’t see any submissions or top control. Cormier said she was looking for a more grappling-heavy game plan, but she doesn’t have the top control to keep an opponent down; she prioritizes damage.
Jauregui would do well against a low-volume striker; it would be 50/50 against a power counter-striker like Lucindo. She might be in trouble against a true grappler. The assumption is that her striking is levels better than her ground game. We haven’t seen her off her back yet.
After watching Jauregui, I saw many holes in her striking and the grappling is a question mark, but there’s no doubt that Jauregui will be the faster striker. Gomes has a little bit of power, but she will be slower. Both girls are easily countered and leave their chins in the air. Both girls also usually come forward and don’t really move backwards.
Gomes has been using a more grappling-heavy approach since her UFC career, which could be a result of facing better competition. She kept trying for the takedown against Loma, when Loma was clearly the faster fighter.
For Jauregui to win, she could stay on the outside and pick Gomes apart, but that’s not really her game; I expect her to do that for the first minute, but when Jauregui goes forward with volume and blitzing she could do damage. It likely doesn’t go to decision if they stand and bang; someone will get countered.
For Gomes to win, she could implement a grappling game plan of clinching and top control. Jauregui stays away from any grappling, so I can see Gomes being the stronger girl against the fence and getting a takedown; from top position, it will be a lot of stalling with Gomes looking for a submission, but not finding it.
Gomes off her back doesn’t really attack submissions other than leg locks or kimuras to defend the grappling. Because Jauregui won’t grapple, I don’t think the kimura will be there. Gomes has a decent chin, but it’s not about the one-punch KO power because Jauregui doesn’t have one-punch KO power; the TKO will come from volume or ground-and-pound after a knockdown.
- Jauregui TKO: 35%
- Jauregui sub: 0%
- Jauregui dec: 25%
- Gomes TKO: 15%
- Gomes sub: 10%
- Gomes dec: 15%
Official Bet: Jauregui/Gomes u2.5 rounds +131, $500 to win $655
)
