Related: UFC Vegas 122 predictions · UFC Vegas 122 live betting guide · Matchup stats · Results
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan (UFC Vegas 122) is Saturday, Oct 10, 2026 at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, with prelims at 5 PM ET. These UFC Vegas 122 best bets come straight from Art C's card notes: for every fight, the most confident bet, the value bet and the long shots.
The reasoning behind each pick is in the UFC Vegas 122 predictions and breakdowns. For in-fight entries, see the live betting guide.
Quick notes
- No strong pre-fight play: Walker vs Meerschaert, Prado vs Bonfim, Price vs Shahbazyan and Frye vs Harris.
- Better live: Prado vs Bonfim is flagged as a live betting spot rather than a pre-fight bet.
- Decision angles: Fight goes to decision is the most confident bet in Godinez vs Souza, Fili vs Kamaka, Pereira vs Zheleznyakova and Kareckaite vs Gatto.
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan (Main Event)
- FightingStats' pick: Brendan Allen by submission
- Most confident: Allen by decision. Allen holds all the decision equity through grappling and top control.
- Value: Allen by submission, or Allen by finish.
- Long shots: Duncan by KO/TKO in Round 1 or 2, and Allen by submission in Rounds 3, 4 or 5.
Why: Allen vs Duncan predictions · Live angle · Stats comparison
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert (Co-Main Event)
- FightingStats' pick: Jai Herbert (underdog) by decision
- Most confident: Herbert by decision.
- Value / playable: Herbert +3.5 points, Herbert +7.5 points, Camilo NOT by finish, or Herbert decision only.
- Long shots: Herbert by KO/TKO in Round 2 or 3, or Camilo by KO/TKO in Round 1 if Herbert's chin is a concern.
Why: Breakdown · Live angle · Stats comparison
Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza
- FightingStats' pick: Loopy Godinez by unanimous decision
- Most confident: Fight goes to decision.
- Value: Godinez by decision, with Godinez decision only also playable.
- Long shots (small dabbles only): Godinez by submission, since she'll get chances on the ground. Souza by KO/TKO is her most likely way to win but isn't very live.
Why: Breakdown · Live angle · Stats comparison
Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka
- FightingStats' pick: Andre Fili by decision
- Most confident: Fight goes to decision.
- Value / angles: Fight ends by split decision, or Fili finish only.
- Long shots: Fili by decision, or Kamaka in Rounds 2 or 3 if his low kicks pile up (better as a live angle).
Why: Breakdown · Live angle · Stats comparison
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi
- FightingStats' pick: Otari Tanzilovi (underdog) by decision
- Most confident (leans): The fight goes later. Fight starts Round 2, over 1.5 rounds and over 2.5 rounds are all decent looks.
- Value: Wellmaker NOT by finish. It's risky given his power, but playable.
- Long shots: Tanzilovi by decision, Tanzilovi by submission in Rounds 2 or 3 if Wellmaker gets controlled late, or Wellmaker by KO/TKO in Round 1, since that's how he usually finishes fights.
Why: Breakdown · Live angle · Stats comparison
Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert
- FightingStats' pick: Julius Walker by decision (no bet at this price)
- Most confident: Nothing strong. Walker's moneyline isn't playable at this price, and Walker under takedowns is a lean, since grappling isn't his correct path.
- Value: GM3 (Meerschaert) submission only, or Walker Round 1 only.
- Long shots: GM3 by submission, GM3 by submission in Rounds 2 or 3 (parlay piece), Walker by decision if he sticks and moves, and Walker by KO/TKO in Round 1 (his most likely finish, though not recommended).
- Decision only: Could go either way, so no strong opinion.
Why: Breakdown · Live angle · Stats comparison
Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
- FightingStats' pick: Francisco Prado by KO/TKO
- Most confident: None pre-fight. This is a better live betting spot.
- Value: Live Prado. See the Prado vs Bonfim live angle.
- Long shots: Prado by KO/TKO in Rounds 2 or 3, or Bonfim Round 1 only. That was the play against Sola, and Bonfim got submitted, so treat it with caution.
Why: Breakdown · Stats comparison
Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan
- FightingStats' pick: Leon Shahbazyan by submission (low confidence)
- Most confident: Nothing strong. A pass is fine, and this is small action on Price's last fight.
- Value: Shahbazyan submission only, or Shahbazyan Round 1 only (far from a lock).
- Long shots: Price by KO/TKO in Rounds 2 or 3 as a hedge, if he survives Round 1 and Shahbazyan starts to fold under adversity.
Why: Breakdown · Live angle · Stats comparison
Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro
- FightingStats' pick: Felipe Franco by submission
- Most confident: Franco by submission.
- Value: Franco by submission in Round 1 or 2, or fight doesn't go to decision.
- Long shot: Ribeiro by KO/TKO in Round 1.
Why: Breakdown · Live angle · Stats comparison
Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris
- FightingStats' pick: RJ Harris by KO/TKO
- Most confident: Nothing strong. The Harris price is expensive, and Harris by finish is heavily juiced.
- Value: Harris by submission.
- Long shots: Harris by decision, if there's a lot of fence grappling and cage pushing.
Why: Breakdown · Live angle · Stats comparison
Alice Pereira vs Darya Zheleznyakova
- FightingStats' pick: Alice Pereira by decision (no bet)
- Most confident: Fight goes to decision.
- Value: Zheleznyakova +3.5 or +7.5 points.
- Long shot: Fight ends by split decision.
- Overall: Likely a pass beyond the decision angle.
Why: Breakdown · Live angle · Stats comparison
Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto
- FightingStats' pick: Ernesta Kareckaite by decision
- Most confident: Fight goes to decision, Kareckaite +3.5 points, or Kareckaite +7.5 points.
- Value: Kareckaite significant strikes ladder, depending on how much time the fight spends on the mat.
- Long shots: Fight ends by split decision, or Kareckaite by split decision.
Why: Breakdown · Live angle · Stats comparison
Every bet, tracked: Art C's weekly tape study, dashboards and every bet as it's placed are on Patreon.
- Compare any two fighters: Matchups
- Track the bankroll: Results
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