Related: UFC Vegas 122 predictions · Allen vs Duncan best bets · Matchup stats · Results
UFC Vegas 122 live betting starts with the prelims at 5 PM ET on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. This guide turns Art C's live betting angles and breakdowns into a quick in-fight checklist for every bout on the Allen vs Duncan card.
Each fight is organized into up to four parts:
- How it's likely to unfold
- What to watch
- When to jump in
- What to avoid (only where the analysis flags a spot to stay away from)
Pre-fight plays are in the Allen vs Duncan best bets, and full reasoning is in the UFC Vegas 122 predictions.
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan (Main Event)
How it's likely to unfold
- Duncan could have success early and might even rock Allen.
- FightingStats' pick is Allen by submission. His top control is a level above anyone Duncan has faced.
What to watch
- Duncan's takedown defense. He spins and kicks a lot, which invites caught kicks.
- Duncan's get-ups. He consistently gives up his back when he stands up.
- The danger for Allen: a spinning elbow or one big shot.
When to jump in
- If Allen survives early trouble, live bet Allen. He can reset with takedowns, and Duncan is unproven over five rounds.
Go deeper: Allen vs Duncan predictions · Allen vs Duncan best bets · Stats comparison
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert (Co-Main Event)
How it's likely to unfold
- Camilo likely shoots early.
- Herbert's path is to keep it at range, make Camilo work for takedowns and top time, then take over late.
- Herbert's cardio and volume are the more trusted ones over three rounds. Up-and-down battles have left Camilo looking tired in Rounds 2 and 3.
What to watch
- Whether Herbert keeps getting back up and forcing scrambles.
- Camilo getting too close. Herbert can tie up in a tight clinch and throw knees to the body.
- Both men can crack, and Herbert's chin is a question early.
When to jump in
- Early Camilo takedowns would push Herbert's live price to an inflated underdog number.
- Live bet Herbert if he keeps getting back up and forcing scrambles.
What to avoid
- Hold off if Camilo takes Herbert down and keeps him there for all of Round 1.
Go deeper: Breakdown · Best bets · Stats comparison
Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza
How it's likely to unfold
- A dominant Godinez decision with some submission threats is the likely script. Both fighters are very durable.
- Souza has real power and throws big looping shots. Godinez stays light on her feet, takes the outside angle and keeps a strong high guard.
What to watch
- Souza getting back up is a good sign for her.
- Godinez keeps shooting into the later rounds, and the takedowns and top time get easier as Souza tires.
When to jump in
- Get Godinez early, before the first takedown.
- If Godinez stands and Souza lands visual power shots, the line may tick toward Souza.
What to avoid
- Waiting until the grappling starts. Expect the live line to swing heavily to Godinez and not come back.
Go deeper: Breakdown · Best bets · Stats comparison
Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka
How it's likely to unfold
- A very close fight that should go to the scorecards at a high clip, with 29-28 possible either way.
- No cardio concerns on either side, and each fighter should have moments.
What to watch
- Kamaka's leg kicks. Fili limping or slowing down late is the signal.
When to jump in
- If Fili starts limping or slowing down late, that's the Kamaka live spot. Otherwise the lean stays Fili.
- If either fighter gets to +200 or better live, there may be a chance to bet both sides at good plus money as the line moves.
Go deeper: Breakdown · Best bets · Stats comparison
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi
How it's likely to unfold
- Wellmaker is front-loaded and does his damage early, with real power in his hooks, especially the check right hook.
- Tanzilovi stays at kicking range, uses one-two entries before backing out, and has fast entries to the hips. He's more takedowns and control than a submission finisher.
What to watch
- Wellmaker's takedown defense.
- Whether Tanzilovi gets easy takedowns and top time, or Wellmaker pops right back up and makes him work.
- Tanzilovi's cardio. He slowed in his last two fights, though he gets a pass on both.
When to jump in
- Best spot: If Wellmaker starts hot with his hands before the first takedown, grab Tanzilovi at plus money.
- Easy takedowns and top time for Tanzilovi: live bet Tanzilovi.
- Wellmaker popping right back up and making Tanzilovi work: consider Wellmaker live.
What to avoid
- Leaning too hard on Wellmaker live. He isn't a builder and fades after the early rounds.
- Waiting too long on Tanzilovi. Once he gets Wellmaker down and Wellmaker can't get up, the line swings hard and live bettors miss the train.
Go deeper: Breakdown · Best bets · Stats comparison
Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert
How it's likely to unfold
- On the feet, Walker is faster, more athletic and more powerful, and holds a clear striking edge.
- Walker has slowed down in multiple fights, and Meerschaert (GM3) tends to pick up as opponents fade.
What to watch
- Whether Walker shoots or sticks and moves.
- If Walker shoots, GM3 can catch a front choke or turn it into a sweep, and once on top he's more likely to stay there.
- If Walker keeps it standing and uses his wrestling defensively, he could run away with a decision, and a GM3 live spot may never come.
When to jump in
- If Walker shoots early, live bet GM3 as a big underdog. He can threaten from the bottom, he'll make Walker work on top, and Walker fades late.
- A fast Walker start can push GM3 to an even bigger live price.
Go deeper: Breakdown · Best bets · Stats comparison
Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
How it's likely to unfold
- Bonfim may look good early. On paper he's probably the better striker and possibly the better grappler.
- If Bonfim doesn't finish it early, Prado takes over late. Prado is historically durable and hard to put away.
What to watch
- Bonfim fading as the fight gets longer and adversity hits. He has repeatedly faded and quit in those spots.
- Bonfim's fight IQ. Against Axel Sola, he kept forcing the same takedown and ate a pile of elbows.
When to jump in
- Main play: If Prado survives Round 1 and is a big underdog live, bet Prado.
- Prado could also control the whole fight and never offer a good live entry.
Go deeper: Breakdown · Best bets · Stats comparison
Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan
How it's likely to unfold
- Shahbazyan has a big advantage if the fight hits the mat, with multiple Round 1 submissions, mainly front guillotines and triangles.
- Price looks very slow at the tail end of his career, but he's still fairly durable.
What to watch
- Whether Shahbazyan can get it to the mat. He doesn't grapple offensively much.
- Whether Shahbazyan folds under adversity. He has a tendency to quit when it hits.
When to jump in
- If Shahbazyan can't get it to the mat, or gets it there and can't finish, Price becomes the live look late.
What to avoid
- Overrating Price late. He slows down too, and his fight shape for three hard rounds is a real question.
Go deeper: Breakdown · Best bets · Stats comparison
Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro
How it's likely to unfold
- Ribeiro comes out very aggressive, hits very hard and is live to hurt anyone in Round 1.
- Ribeiro's takedown defense is atrocious. Once Franco gets a takedown, he should run away with it.
What to watch
- Franco's first takedown. Once he shoots and lands it, expect him to run through Ribeiro on the mat.
- Franco's cardio. He gassed out on Contender Series but looks to have addressed it, and Ribeiro isn't one to push a pace.
When to jump in
- Get Franco early, ideally before his first takedown.
- If Ribeiro hurts Franco early, look for a better live number on Franco.
Go deeper: Breakdown · Best bets · Stats comparison
Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris
How it's likely to unfold
- Mostly on the feet, though Harris likes to hunt the front guillotine.
- Frye's path is pushing Harris against the fence and grinding on him. This could still go to the scorecards.
What to watch
- Whether Frye can pin Harris on the fence. Harris should be bigger and stronger in the clinch, so even that may not be viable.
When to jump in
- The lean is Harris, who has more weapons and more ways to win.
- If Frye pins Harris on the fence early and the line comes in, take Harris live. That spot may never come, though.
Go deeper: Breakdown · Best bets · Stats comparison
Alice Pereira vs Darya Zheleznyakova
How it's likely to unfold
- A very close fight, likely fought on the feet, that should go to the scorecards at a high clip.
- Pereira moves a lot and may be on the back foot. Zheleznyakova will be on the front foot throwing the bigger power shots.
What to watch
- The early exchanges and Pereira's game plan.
- Whether Pereira's grappling shows up at all, or this is 15 minutes of striking.
When to jump in
- If Pereira circles and sticks and moves, Zheleznyakova stays live on the front foot landing the bigger shots. Look for her at a plus-money live number.
Go deeper: Breakdown · Best bets · Stats comparison
Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto
How it's likely to unfold
- Kareckaite's volume will likely move the live line her way early.
- If it stays standing, Kareckaite's volume and forward pressure should win the judges over. If Gatto can take her down and hold her there, it flips.
What to watch
- The get-ups. Whether Kareckaite pops right back up, or Gatto holds her down, decides the live side.
When to jump in
- Early, there may be a chance to get Gatto at a better price before her first takedown.
- If it stays standing, Kareckaite's volume is the difference.
Go deeper: Breakdown · Best bets · Stats comparison
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