Related: Allen vs Duncan best bets · UFC Vegas 122 live betting guide · Matchup stats · Results
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan (UFC Vegas 122) takes place Saturday, Oct 10, 2026 at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, with prelims at 5 PM ET. These UFC Vegas 122 predictions cover every fight on the card, main event first, with FightingStats' pick, method and the key factors from Art C's analysis.
Want the bets? The Allen vs Duncan best bets article lists the most confident play, value bet and long shots for each fight, and the UFC Vegas 122 live betting guide covers in-fight spots.
Picks at a glance
- Allen vs Duncan: Brendan Allen by submission
- Camilo vs Herbert: Jai Herbert (underdog) by decision
- Godinez vs Souza: Loopy Godinez by unanimous decision
- Fili vs Kamaka: Andre Fili by decision
- Wellmaker vs Tanzilovi: Otari Tanzilovi (underdog) by decision
- Walker vs Meerschaert: Julius Walker by decision (no bet at this price)
- Prado vs Bonfim: Francisco Prado by KO/TKO
- Price vs Shahbazyan: Leon Shahbazyan by submission (low confidence)
- Franco vs Ribeiro: Felipe Franco by submission
- Frye vs Harris: RJ Harris by KO/TKO
- Pereira vs Zheleznyakova: Alice Pereira by decision (no bet)
- Kareckaite vs Gatto: Ernesta Kareckaite by decision
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan (Main Event)
- Pick: Brendan Allen
- Method: Submission
Breakdown
- Key factor: Duncan's takedown defense.
- Taken down by non-grapplers: Cannonier, Dolidze (3 TDs), Marco Tulio, Anders, Rodrigues (4 TDs) and Petrosyan.
- Why: Duncan spins and kicks a lot. 32% of his landed significant strikes are kicks, which invites caught kicks.
- Get-ups: He consistently gives up his back when he stands up.
- Allen's edge: His top control is a level above anyone Duncan has faced, and his boxing is fundamentally sound.
- Risk: A spinning elbow or one big shot.
More on this fight: Allen vs Duncan best bets · Live betting angle · Allen vs Duncan stats comparison
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert (Co-Main Event)
- Pick: Jai Herbert (underdog)
- Method: Decision
Breakdown
- Key factor: Herbert's takedown defense and get-ups, which have both clearly improved.
- On the feet: Camilo is very low volume. Herbert has a huge reach advantage and a big volume edge.
- Range battle: Camilo has to enter the pocket. If he gets too close, Herbert ties up in a tight clinch and throws knees to the body.
- Camilo's grappling: He took Borshchev down repeatedly, but his top control was poor and Borshchev kept getting back up.
- Cardio: The up-and-down battles left Camilo looking tired in Rounds 2 and 3.
- Path for Herbert: Keep it at range, make Camilo work for takedowns and top time, then take over late, possibly even finishing him in Round 2 or 3.
- Risk: Both men can crack, and Herbert's chin is a question early.
More on this fight: Best bets · Live betting angle · Camilo vs Herbert stats comparison
Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza
- Pick: Loopy Godinez
- Method: Decision (unanimous)
Breakdown
- Key factor: Souza's takedown defense. She has been taken down by lesser opponents and struggled to get back up.
- Godinez's camp: She is back in Canada training with her Olympic wrestler sister. Her takedowns and top time are better than anything Souza has seen.
- Souza on the feet: She has real power. She plants her feet and throws big looping shots, very similar to Jessica Andrade.
- Godinez's defense: She is light on her feet, takes the outside angle, keeps a strong high guard and moves off the line, so Souza may not land cleanly.
- Godinez's boxing: It's solid. She couldn't get takedowns against Andrade and still outpointed her on the feet, and she should have even more success here.
- Durability: Both are very durable, so a dominant Godinez decision with some submission threats is the likely script.
More on this fight: Best bets · Live betting angle · Godinez vs Souza stats comparison
Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka
- Pick: Andre Fili
- Method: Decision
Breakdown
- Key factor: A very close fight that should go to the scorecards at a high clip, with 29-28 possible either way.
- Kamaka: Meat-and-potatoes fundamentals. He's technically sound, doesn't take many risks and is very good at what he does.
- Fili: Probably the better striker, with more weapons, and he could mix in some takedowns.
- Finishing equity: Fili has a bit more of it if this doesn't go the distance.
More on this fight: Best bets · Live betting angle · Fili vs Kamaka stats comparison
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi
- Pick: Otari Tanzilovi (underdog)
- Method: Decision
Breakdown
- Key factor: Wellmaker's takedown defense.
- Wellmaker's danger: Real power in his hooks, especially the check right hook. He had three straight KOs before back-to-back losses to Ethyn Ewing and Juan Diaz, and he is front-loaded, doing his damage early.
- Tanzilovi's range game: He won't sit in the pocket. He stays at kicking range with a wide variety of kicks, uses flashy one-two entries before backing out, and keeps a high guard as he circles off.
- Tanzilovi's wrestling: Fast entries to the hips and a high-level wrestling base. He comes out of the high-level Georgian wrestling scene (Guram Fight Club).
- Wellmaker on the ground: His last fight exposed it, as he was submitted on the mat. An ATT camp is a good sign, but he likely went there to work on takedown defense, not offense.
- Cardio asterisk: Tanzilovi slowed in his last two fights. At Contender Series, Musasa had good hips and get-ups and made him work for everything, and his last fight was on short notice up a weight class. He gets a pass on both.
- Finishing: Tanzilovi is not much of a submission finisher. He's more takedowns and control, and Wellmaker's chin looks solid.
More on this fight: Best bets · Live betting angle · Wellmaker vs Tanzilovi stats comparison
Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert
- Pick: Julius Walker (no bet at this price)
- Method: Decision
Breakdown
- Walker's UFC run: He hasn't looked good over four UFC fights and has been hurt in every one.
- Why Walker wrestles: Against better strikers like Menifield and Jacoby, his striking defense looked suspect and he got rocked, so he leans on offensive wrestling.
- The unknown: Walker hasn't faced anyone who wanted to grapple with him, and Meerschaert (GM3) is not someone you want to grapple.
- GM3's danger: He has good submissions and sweeps. Against a strong wrestler in Jacob Malkoun last time out, he reversed position in Round 1 and threatened a guillotine in Round 3. If Walker shoots, GM3 can catch a front choke or turn it into a sweep, and once on top GM3 is more likely to stay there.
- On the feet: Walker is faster, more athletic and more powerful. GM3 is slow and very hittable, so Walker holds a clear striking edge.
- Cardio: Walker has slowed down in multiple fights, and GM3 tends to pick up as opponents fade.
More on this fight: Best bets · Live betting angle · Walker vs Meerschaert stats comparison
Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
- Pick: Francisco Prado
- Method: KO/TKO
Breakdown
- On paper: Bonfim is probably the better striker and possibly the better grappler.
- Key factor: Heart. Bonfim has repeatedly faded and quit as fights get longer and adversity hits.
- Fight IQ: Against Axel Sola, Bonfim kept forcing the same takedown and ate a pile of elbows instead of disengaging and getting back to space.
- Prado: Historically durable and fights for your money. He has lost some decisions, but he's hard to put away and can take over late.
- Script: If Bonfim doesn't finish it early, Prado takes over late.
More on this fight: Best bets · Live betting angle · Prado vs Bonfim stats comparison
Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan
- Pick: Leon Shahbazyan (low confidence)
- Method: Submission
Breakdown
- Context: Price retired after a bad-looking loss to Michael Chiesa and is back for what looks like a final, retirement-style fight against a beatable opponent.
- Price's state: He's at the tail end of his career, looks very slow and may already be mentally checked out. Fading late-career Price has been very profitable.
- Shahbazyan's flaws: Poor striking, a poor overall style and a tendency to quit when adversity hits.
- Shahbazyan's edges: Youth, possible improvement, and a big advantage if the fight hits the mat. He has multiple Round 1 submissions, mainly front guillotines and triangles.
- The question: Shahbazyan doesn't grapple offensively much, so it's unclear how he creates those submission chances. Price is still fairly durable.
- Buy-low spot: Shahbazyan's last fight looked terrible, which likely keeps this line close. Without it, he'd probably be around −300 to −400.
More on this fight: Best bets · Live betting angle · Price vs Shahbazyan stats comparison
Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro
- Pick: Felipe Franco
- Method: Submission
Breakdown
- Ribeiro's danger: He hits very hard, comes out very aggressive and is live to hurt or knock out anyone in Round 1.
- Franco's grappling: He is a BJJ black belt who trains with Jailton Almeida at Galpão da Luta, and his grappling is legit.
- Key factor: Ribeiro's takedown defense is atrocious. Once Franco gets a takedown, he should run away with it.
- Cardio: Franco gassed out on Contender Series, but he looks to have addressed it since, and Ribeiro isn't one to push a pace.
More on this fight: Best bets · Live betting angle · Franco vs Ribeiro stats comparison
Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris
- Pick: RJ Harris
- Method: KO/TKO
Breakdown
- Where it's fought: Mostly on the feet, though Harris likes to hunt the front guillotine, so a submission is possible.
- Frye's path: Pushing Harris against the fence and grinding on him. Harris should be bigger and stronger in the clinch, so even that may not be viable.
- Harris's edges: He hits harder, has the better striking and likely the better submission game.
- Cardio: No clear edge either way.
- Big picture: Neither fighter is great. It comes down to Harris being the less flawed of the two. Frye has taken some big shots, but this could still go to the scorecards, and something weird could happen here.
More on this fight: Best bets · Live betting angle · Frye vs Harris stats comparison
Alice Pereira vs Darya Zheleznyakova
- Pick: Alice Pereira (no bet)
- Method: Decision
Breakdown
- Script: A very close fight, likely fought on the feet, that should go to the scorecards at a high clip.
- Pereira: Moves a lot, throws the one-two and doesn't get hit much, so there's not a lot for judges to score. She may be on the back foot.
- Zheleznyakova: Probably the better technical boxer and striker. She'll be on the front foot throwing the bigger power shots.
- Unknown: Whether Pereira's grappling shows up at all, or this is 15 minutes of striking.
- Pereira skepticism: Against Hailey Cowan, the fight-goes-to-decision play looked good until Pereira caught a late break and finished her with a knee in Round 2. She isn't rated very highly here either.
More on this fight: Best bets · Live betting angle · Pereira vs Zheleznyakova stats comparison
Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto
- Pick: Ernesta Kareckaite
- Method: Decision
Breakdown
- Kareckaite: A tall, lanky, high-volume striker with low power. She's a good distance striker but often fights close, and she has a lot of split-decision wins.
- Gatto: Has the grappling advantage and possibly the harder power shots.
- Recent form: Kareckaite's loss to Regina Tarin was competitive. The striking numbers were close, but Tarin had more power and her damage showed more, which swayed the judges.
- Key factor: If it stays standing, Kareckaite's volume and forward pressure should win the judges over. If Gatto can take her down and hold her there, it flips.
More on this fight: Best bets · Live betting angle · Kareckaite vs Gatto stats comparison
Get the full card work: Art C's weekly tape study, dashboards and every bet as it's placed are on Patreon.
- Compare any two fighters: Matchups
- Track the bankroll: Results
- Keep reading: Allen vs Duncan best bets · UFC Vegas 122 live betting guide · All articles
All picks are for entertainment and informational purposes. Bet responsibly. 19+/21+ where legal. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.