Posted in UFC290

The first thing to note is that Pantoja has never been past round 3 and has shown he can slow down later in fights like in round 3 against Figueiredo in 2019, or round 2 of the Askar Askarov fight. In his most recent fights against Perez, Pantoja came in like a wrecking ball landing 8 of 12 strikes thrown in the first 20 seconds of the fight before getting the takedown and submission. For Pantoja I worry about if he can keep up that pace for 25 minutes knowing that Brandon Moreno has been scheduled to go 25 minutes in each of his last 5 fights and one of Moreno’s weapons is his cardio and the pace that he can keep. It’s also worth noting that outside of the exhibition submission loss to Pantoja in 2016, Brandon Moreno has never been finished in his 29 professional fights. This includes the 1.3 hours of fighting with Deiveson Figueiredo who has a finish rate of 85% amongst his wins and is probably one of the hardest hitters at Flyweight.

Pantoja does have 8 KO wins, but is known more for his high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (BJJ), with 40% of his wins coming by submission. On one side, Moreno has never been finished and only 3% of his total analyzed fight time and 20% of total time grappling was spent on his back. On the other side, Moreno has not faced anyone with Pantoja’s level of BJJ since their last fight in 2018. Over his UFC career, Moreno has shown a Takedown defense of only 67%, so there is a path to victory for Pantoja through grappling.

Striking-wise, both fighters stand in orthodox, with a combined 0.1% of their time in southpaw stance, meaning the rear outside leg kicks are open. Both Moreno and Pantoja both throw the rear low kick 7% of the time, but the difference being Moreno throws the rear high kick only 0.67%, whereas Pantoja is closer to 17%. This is a big discrepancy, but will probably continue into this fight noting that if Moreno throws the high kick, it will open him up to get the kick caught and taken down. I expect a heavier kicking game from Pantoja where he throws 2.18 kicks per minute, compared to 0.64 from Moreno. 

In terms of striking variety, Pantoja can be pretty basic, with 62% of his total strikes either a jab, cross or a jab-cross (1-2). Moreno seems like more of a head-hunter with 85% of strikes thrown towards the head compared to 76% by Pantoja, which I think is more of a by-product of Pantoja’s 10% leg target percentage, compared to 5% from Moreno.

Bo Nickal is the biggest favourite of the card at a whopping -1000, and to be honest, the odds make sense. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say:

• Bo Nickal has 321 seconds of professional MMA experience, which is barely a full round
• In those 321 seconds, 89 seconds (28%) has been standing, where he has thrown 13 total strikes
• 208 seconds (65%) of his total fight time has been on the ground, will all of the ground time in top position
• Bo Nickal has NEVER been hit in the face, and has only been hit 1 time to the body, in his Professional Career

The good news for Treasean Gore is that his numbers show an 81% takedown defense with only 23 seconds of ground bottom time. The bad news is that Gilbert Urbina, Bryan Battle, Cody Brundage and not very good and nowhere near the level of wrestler Bo Nickal is.

So this fight is pretty straight forward, but has a lot of unknowns.

Will Bo Nickal shoot for a Takedown or keep the fight standing?

I think it would be one of the worst decisions to try and stand with Tresean Gore, who’s best chance to win is landing a big shot. So yes, Bo Nickal will very likely shoot for a takedown.

Will Bo Nickal successfully get a takedown?

Most likely yes. Gore is pretty strong, but we’ve seen him get taken down by a lot worse than Bo Nickal.

Now here are the tricky questions.

How is Bo Nickal’s striking?

It looks like it’s improving and you would like a wrestler should be training his striking between camps. With that said, he’s only thrown 13 total strikes. He knocked out John Noland with one of those punches, but he also threw two rear high kicks from southpaw (left high kick), where he threw himself off balance and onto his butt without getting touched. So there are things he could work on.

Can Tresean Gore land a big shot before he gets taken down? And How will Bo Nickal respond?

There’s that famous quote, everybody has a gameplan until they are hit in the face. Bo Nickal has never been hit in the head. He could have the glassiest chin ever, or it could be made of granite. We don’t know. It’s possible Gore lands right away and Bo goes down. Possible, but not very likely.

Can Tresean defend the takedown or at least get back up?

Gore with an 81% takedown defense and pretty strong, but again against what kind of competition? We’ve seen when Gore does attempt to get back up, he gives up his back. We saw this against Brundage and Battle. Bo is too good, to let Gore get up after giving up his back. I can see Bo getting his hooks in quickly and bringing Gore back down. If Bo, jumps the back and gets the hooks in with enough time to work, Bo is likely going to find the rear naked choke.

Can Tresean Gore survive on the ground?

This may come down to fight IQ, and if and how Gore attempts to get up and give up a bad position. The smarted play by Gore might be to just accept he will get taken down, but when he gets to full guard, keep his guard close, control the posture to limit the amount of damage he has to take in round 1 and survive to round 2, where the fight starts on the feet again.

How will Bo Nickal look in the second round?

Who knows? We can assume his cardio is decent from his wrestling credentials, but we don’t actually know. He only fought for 1 round total. If Gore can take Bo to the deep waters, it’s possible Bo gases, and if Bo can’t get the takedown because he’s too tired, it’s possible he gets finished. Is it likely? Again, probably not.

So is Bo Nickal a good bet?

Some books have Bo Nickal as high as -1400 which is an implied 93%. At -1000 it’s still 91%. Meaning if Bo Nickal and Tresean Gore fought 10 times, Bo would need to win at least 9 times to break even. So it’s hard to recommend a play on the steep moneyline. What’s interesting is that -1000 is actually the cheapest Bo has been. Bo Nickal has been -3000 in his first 2 UFC fights against Borrego and Beard, and was still -1650 in his last outing against Jamie Pickett. Now it’s a little crazy to say, but Bo did still “cover” those prices, meaning that the fights looked like massive mismatches and Bo did whatever he want. While, I think Bo Nickal cruises and easily beats Tresean Gore, there are too many unknowns in Bo’s cardio, striking defense and fight IQ to recommend a play at -1000.

What should I bet?

If you want action on this fight, I would look towards the value on prop bets. Bets like Bo moneyline can be a lot cheaper, by betting Bo by submission (hit the last 3 fights) or Bo wins in round 1 (hit last 4 fights). The play will depend on the odds given, but given the fact that those have hit a lot, I’d assume the opening lines would be too expensive for me to get involved. Even if you think Tresean Gore has a chance at winning at +800, I’d still look for added value in props such as, Gore by knockout, or Gore by submission. It would be crazy to see Gore win by decision. 

Here's the lines I’m looking for:

• Bo Nickal by knockout: 30%

• Bo Nickal by submission: 50%

• Bo Nickal by decision: 10%

• Gore by knockout: 5%

• Gore by submission: 5%

• Gore by decision: 0%

Which translates to:

• Bo Nickal moneyline: -900 or better

• Bo Nickal by submission: +100 or better

• Bo Nickal by knockout: +233 or better

• Gore by TKO: +1900 or better

• Fight ends Inside the Distance: -900 or better