Marcin Prachnio has had a roller coaster of a UFC career entering the UFC at 30 years old, but with a record of 12-2, with 8 of those as first-round KOs. A black belt in karate, Prachnio appears to have heavy hands and a decent kicking arsenal. However, he starts his UFC run with 3 first-round knockouts in a row. What was clear from the tape, was that Prachnio doesn't have the greatest striking defense. He likes to stand in orthodox but keeps his lead left hand low, especially when engaging in his strikes. It’s the reason he got knockdown then got knocked out by Sam Alvey with the check R hook. Ankaleav landed the same check R hook from Southpaw that lead to the KO finish. The mike rodriguez KO was from elbows in the clinch, but Prachnio did get dropped by that R hand from Rountree in their match. Prachnio dealt with adversity and came back to win that fight. Mostly from Rountree getting out volume 102 strikes from Prachnio to 49 from Roundtree. Prachnio used a heavy kicking game approach landing 40/46 strikes to the legs. Prachnio cashed as a +290 dog in that fight. 

Then gets Ike Villanueva (who is 1-5 in his last 6). Ike also had Prachnio rocked in that first round until prachnio went back to his success and started throwing the power outside low kicks, Ike didn't like those and wasn't able to stand at the end of the first round. Into the 2 round, Ike was focused on the leg, prachnio switches to southpaw and landed a big kick to the body. Against philipe lins, lins exposed Prachnio's strength of schedule of not facing a grappler. Lins took prachnio down early in round 1, causing prachnio to wrestle in round 1. In round 2, prachnio was visibly gassed at the start of the round, Lins held onto a slightly better gas tank. Prachnio was too gassed to have any power on his shots or throw heavy kicks. Prachnio even started looking for the TD in hopes of getting his cardio back in top position. That never happened. Lins rode the cardio dump to a decision win. Now don't get me started on the William Knight fight. That fight looked like a match from street fighter, not the good kind. The kind where you start a match, and then the second player gets called away and has to leave, and his character stands there for 3 rounds. Although William knight didn't move, prachnio decided to stick to the game plan and not take risks throwing 83% of total strikes thrown were leg kicks. Prachnio cruised to a decision win but never pressed the gas content with staying out of danger.

I'm hoping that prachnio coming off 2 back to back fights that went to decision, we may get a decent opener on the total.

Vitor Petrino is a heavy-handed power striker, that can also mix in his grappling. His MMA fighting career started out with some can-crushing like most stars starting out. Took a big step up against Antigulov who he was also able to finish. Although Petrino is 8-0 with 75% of his wins by TKO (50% in round 1), Petrino is very hittable

Power striker that has been looking to grapple at times as well. Wants to show hes more than just a power striker. One the ground he isn't looking for subs, more gnp and more used to control opponents.

Tends to use more power than technique to reverse or escape positions. Last fight vs turkalj, he was in some bad spots, getting his back taken, getting dropped. He was able to fight through it, but don’t see petrino being a huge fav because of it. Against a strong striker like prachnio, anything is live. Thats 2 fights in a row where petrino has been dropped and in trouble.

Big step up in competition from region guys to turkalj (who is still a regional guy to prachnio, who is 3-4 in the UFC. Pracnio has 69% of wins by TKO, but also 67% of loses. Will be looking at the totals, or finishes round 1.

If petrino comes out aggressive, first guy to land clean probably wins. Pracnio ko rnd 1 is live, possible that petrino comes out looking to grapple, but it will drain his cardio faster, practnio is a big guy as well.

U1.5 is worth a shot,

I think prachnio will try to lean on the success he's found so far (if it ain't broke don’t fix it) and he may try to work leg kicks from the outside. Petrino will have 2 options, close the distance and strike, in which both guys are live for a first round KO. Both guys are chinny, but I favor the speed and power of petrino especially in round 1. The other option is that petrino could look to grapple, and saw that lins set out the gameplan that prachnio is a fish on his back. If petrino looks for the TD, expect some nasty GnP from top position. This early grappling could affect both practnio and petrino as both guys have had cardio issues in the past. If either guy gassed before the other, then the finish should also be live if the fight gets out of the first round. THere is an off chance both guys gas and then it becomes a slopfest and bad beat. The last option is that prachnio tries to stay at kicking ranging, throwing all his different kicks and wears on petrino down. I still think that petrino is no william knight and will have to engage if he feels his legs starting to go.

With 75% of petrinos wins coming from KO, and 67% of prachnios losses coming by KO, I predict petrino by 1st round KO

• Petrino KO: 40%
• Petrino sub: 10%
• Petrino dec: 15%
• Prachnio Ko: 20%
• Prachnio sub: 0%
• Prachnio dec: 15%

Niko Price has been around for a while and has had an interesting UFC career, but it is still hard to gauge how good he really is. He often weaponizes his cardio, taking his opponents into deep waters, where he tends to have the better stamina. In almost every fight that gets to the third round, somebody is gassing hard. That, combined with the fact that Price comes forward after losing the first two rounds, makes him exciting. Price was down two rounds to Luque, Pereira, and Rowe, where he came forward in round three, almost finding the finish against Rowe and Pereira. He won the Alex Oliveira fight in the last 45 seconds, where Price found a takedown.

Price almost exclusively fights from an orthodox stance. He will rarely switch to Southpaw, where he will only throw a kick and quickly switch back to Orthodox. From orthodox, he uses a lot of 1-2s, which are close to 3-4s with how wide those punches come. He uses the jab, but it’s not really snappy, more something to keep the pace up. Overall, Price looks very slow, and almost in every fight he gets tagged early. He was slower than Rowe, even Alex Pereira, and Luque. Cerrone had his moments. Price’s latest UFC wins are over Alex Oliveira, who is no longer in the UFC; a draw with Cerrone after losing a point; and KOing the chinny James Vick (by upkick) and Tim Means. Not the most impressive resume. On the flip side, his losses are to legit competition in Luque, Pereira, and Rowe.

Price is 15-6 with only three fights going to decision, but those three were in his last four fights. I want to say that Price is looking like he’s slowing down, not having a ton of power on his strikes. He lacks speed and power, but has cardio and a decent chin and always moves forward.

Robbie Lawler is a legend still fighting at 41 years old and didn’t look bad in his last fight against Barberena. Lawler looked good and fast and actually won the first round. Similar to Price, Barberena has a good chin and keeps a crazy cardio pace. Lawler has actually fought a lot of volume guys recently as well. He absorbed 147 strikes from Barberena, 160 from Nick Diaz (three rounds), 62 from Magny, 179 from Covington, zero from Askren lol and 172 from RDA. Lawler is 2-6 in his last eight UFC fights, with two wins over a four-year layoff Nick Diaz and Donald Cerrone. So it’s a tough fight to call.

Lawler tried to come out looser in his last fight, light on his feet, but when it became a firefight, he reverted back to his old ways of brawling. Lawler started to move in and out of range, where he had previously stayed in the pocket and rolled with the punches.

Against the volume guys, Lawler was content with taking the volume early and shelling up while waiting to counter. He will eat four or five shots while trying to land one.

Lawler will have the power advantage, and I’d say even faster in round one. The only knock is the cardio of Lawler, but he actually looked fine against Colby who grappled him for five rounds. If RDA, Colby and Magny didn’t find the submission after having Lawler’s back, I doubt Price will get the submission.

• Lawler KO: 25%. I think the KO is live, especially in round one; it drops off a lot going into rounds two and three.
• Lawler sub: 0%. I don’t see it coming unless it’s a club-and-sub; Lawler doesn’t shoot for takedowns or hunt for submissions in top control.
• Lawler dec: 20%. He could win a decision if Price’s chin holds up; both guys could slow down and both guys’ chins are decent enough to be a firefight for rounds two and three and nobody goes down.
• Price KO: 25%. It has to be live, but more live as the fight goes on; especially in round three.
• Price sub: 5%. OK, I was going to say zero but don’t think Lawler gets submitted.
• Price dec: 25%. It could happen for Price; Price should win round three; he could lose round one and it comes down to round two. Lawler does a good job of rolling with the punches.

Bets to Consider:

• Draw
• Lawler KO round one
• Price KO round three
• Over 1.5 rounds and over 2.5 rounds 

Yazmin Jauregui is a striker from Mexico. In one word, she is pressure. She always comes forward with pressure and volume. She can stay on the outside, but when she starts blitzing, it’s five or six punch combos with her head up in the air. She has no one-punch KO power, but more death by a thousand cuts. She has a couple of TKO wins where the ref jumps in. The stoppage will depend on the ref. She is open to getting countered when she’s blitzing. She got dropped by a counter by Nunes. For someone with the volume and pressure of Jauregui, her cardio looks fine, having gone to a decision with Lucindo and looking fine in round three.

However, we haven’t really seen her in a grappling-heavy fight yet. I have noticed that Jauregui wants nothing to do with the ground or clinch. She can defend a takedown well against the cage, or use the cage to pop back up.

Her top control is a result of defensive grappling, such as stopping a takedown, or landing a knockdown and following her opponent to the ground. From top control, she is only looking for ground-and-pound; I don’t see any submissions or top control. Cormier said she was looking for a more grappling-heavy game plan, but she doesn’t have the top control to keep an opponent down; she prioritizes damage.

Jauregui would do well against a low-volume striker; it would be 50/50 against a power counter-striker like Lucindo. She might be in trouble against a true grappler. The assumption is that her striking is levels better than her ground game. We haven’t seen her off her back yet.

After watching Jauregui, I saw many holes in her striking and the grappling is a question mark, but there’s no doubt that Jauregui will be the faster striker. Gomes has a little bit of power, but she will be slower. Both girls are easily countered and leave their chins in the air. Both girls also usually come forward and don’t really move backwards.

Gomes has been using a more grappling-heavy approach since her UFC career, which could be a result of facing better competition. She kept trying for the takedown against Loma, when Loma was clearly the faster fighter.

For Jauregui to win, she could stay on the outside and pick Gomes apart, but that’s not really her game; I expect her to do that for the first minute, but when Jauregui goes forward with volume and blitzing she could do damage. It likely doesn’t go to decision if they stand and bang; someone will get countered.

For Gomes to win, she could implement a grappling game plan of clinching and top control. Jauregui stays away from any grappling, so I can see Gomes being the stronger girl against the fence and getting a takedown; from top position, it will be a lot of stalling with Gomes looking for a submission, but not finding it.

Gomes off her back doesn’t really attack submissions other than leg locks or kimuras to defend the grappling. Because Jauregui won’t grapple, I don’t think the kimura will be there. Gomes has a decent chin, but it’s not about the one-punch KO power because Jauregui doesn’t have one-punch KO power; the TKO will come from volume or ground-and-pound after a knockdown.

• Jauregui TKO: 35%
• Jauregui sub: 0%
• Jauregui dec: 25%
• Gomes TKO: 15%
• Gomes sub: 10%
• Gomes dec: 15%

Official Bet: Jauregui/Gomes u2.5 rounds +131, $500 to win $655

Jimmy Crute vs Alonzo Menifield: A battle of knockout artists

The UFC light heavyweight division is heating up, and two of its rising stars are set to collide in July. Jimmy Crute and Alonzo Menifield are both known for their explosive power and finishing ability, and they will look to make a statement when they face each other in the octagon.

Crute is a 26-year-old Australian who has a 12-3-1 record in MMA, with 9 of his wins coming by stoppage. He made his UFC debut in 2018 and has gone 4-3-1 since, with all 7 wins and losses coming by knockout or submission. He is currently ranked #12 in the UFC light heavyweight rankings.

Menifield is a 35-year-old American who has a 13-3-1 record in MMA, with 9 of his wins coming by knockout. He is a former football player who turned to MMA after his career was cut short by injuries. He made his UFC debut in 2019 after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series, and has since gone 6-3-1 in the promotion.

This fight is a rematch of their February 2023 matchup where they fought to a draw. Alonso Menifield would have won a decision, had he not gotten a point deduction for grabbing the fence to prevent a takedown. Menifield would have cashed as a +155 dog in that fight, whereas now the betting line for the rematch is about even money on both sides. But here’s why I think one of these sides has value.

Going into the original matchup back in February, I thought Jimmy Crute was the better side because of his grappling and cardio upside. I was really impressed by Crute’s UFC debut when he fought Paul Craig, who has 81% of his 16 wins by submissions and opponents are scared to jump into Craig’s guard. Not only did Crute jump into Craig’s guard, he dominated Paul Craig on the ground passing the guard and moving into full mount while also reversing position twice on Craig. Paul Craig has only been submitted once, and that was Jimmy Crute.

Crute was able to dominate the wrestling exchanges early, however, Menified did show a good get-up game. In the clinch, Menified was the stronger fighter, and where Menifield got most of his control time.

Most will remember Menifiled losing a point in the 3^rd round causing the fight to be a draw, but also remember that Crute controlled the grappling in the first and bag a huge mistake of jumping on the guillotine and giving up top position. I think if Crute keeps that top position away from the cage, Crute goes on to win the fight.

In addition, I think it was a perfect fight for Menifield. He got taken down early but was close enough to the fence that he was able to use the cage to prevent the back take. Then Crute got another TD in the middle of the Octagon but Menifield was able to scramble back up. Any time Menifield got taken down, he used the fence to wall-walk back up. With 2 minutes left, Crute has a standing guillotine but falls back into guard and gives up top position. Crute immediately sweeps and almost reverses the position and lets Menifield back up. Crute starts to slow down from the grappling and throws a lazy high kick causing him to fall backward and give up the position. Menifield uses this position to rain down ground and pound. As Crute stands back up, he gets rocked by a right hand and knocked down, but even when he was rocked, and on his knees he grabbed Menifield's legs and got another takedown at the end of the round.

Crute showed some recovery at the start of round 2, but I think he doesn’t fully recover and round 2 becomes similar to round 1 with Menifield scoring another knockdown and top control time. Crute becomes exhausted and gets beat up, which is a bad look. Almost a 10-8 round for Menifield, but Crute again is able to cage wrestle and get a takedown at the end of the round.

Into the 3^rd, Crute even though he took a beat was still able to win the grappling exchanges and win the 3^rd round. Again I think a lot went right for Menifield and Crute took some of Menifield’s biggest shots and didn’t go down. I think it would be harder for Menifield to replicate the same fight vs Crute not getting hit, or making better decisions to win the rounds. Crute didn’t cover the -190 price tag in the first fight, but now he’s a dog. I think there’s more room for Crute to improve as the 9 years younger fighter.

• Crute KO: 15%
• Crute sub: 20%
• Crute Dec: 20%
• Menified KO: 25%
• Menifield sub: 0%
• Menifield dec: 20%

official bet: Jimmy Crute +100 $500(1 unit) to win $500