Related: Tape Index: every career bout on the card, with film · Matchup stats · Results · Best Bets
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker (UFC Vegas 124) is Saturday, Nov 7, 2026, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. UFC.com lists the prelims at 5 PM ET (2 PM PT) and the main card at 8 PM ET (5 PM PT) on Paramount+. This guide is Art C's live betting notes for the card, fight by fight in UFC.com card order: what to look for once the fight starts, and the live bet target for each fight.
Live prices move fast. Nothing here is a pre-fight pick, and every spot depends on how the fight actually plays out.
Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Johnny Walker (Main Event)
What to look for
- Walker will move a lot and throw lots of low kicks. Watch whether the leg-kick damage accumulates and does anything.
- If Cortes Acosta switches stances, the leg kicks are getting to him. When he gets leg-kicked, he normally goes forward more, closes the distance and may look to grapple.
- Walker is live to get knocked out at any point, so only live bet Walker if the leg kicks are clearly working.
Live bet target: Otherwise Cortes Acosta, especially if his line is inflated a lot.
More on this fight: Cortes Acosta vs Walker stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba (Co-Main Event)
What to look for
- Suarez will grapple early and can get takedowns when she wants. Jandiroba could sweep her and get on top, possibly stealing a round that way.
- It comes down to Suarez's first takedown: how easily it comes, how hard Jandiroba makes her work, or whether she gets swept.
- Suarez's top control is usually elite. If she does get in trouble and her line comes down, Jandiroba has to do it again, and it's more likely Suarez keeps getting takedowns and winning rounds.
Live bet target: Suarez, especially if her line comes in.
More on this fight: Suarez vs Jandiroba stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith
What to look for
- Smith is probably the favorite to win Round 1 through grappling, top time and control.
- The longer it goes, the more it becomes a Grant fight. Grant will be on the front foot, marching Smith down with volume and pressure. He's not the most technical, but his volume freezes opponents' return offense. Art can see Grant winning Rounds 2 and 3.
- Smith has slowed down in later rounds, especially when he has to grapple early. Grant is hard to hold down.
Live bet target: Grant, potentially at the end of Round 1, depending on how hard Smith has to work for his takedowns and to keep them.
More on this fight: Grant vs Smith stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando
What to look for
- This comes down to leg kicks, and whether Elekana can get his grappling going. His takedown entries aren't great.
- If Elekana can't even get in close to Fernando, live bet Fernando.
- Fernando is more likely to land low kicks and accumulate body damage. Elekana has slowed down in the past.
- If Elekana gets hurt on the feet and falls into a takedown, the Fernando live line may come in. Live bet Fernando at the end of Round 1.
Live bet target: Fernando.
More on this fight: Elekana vs Fernando stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milošević
What to look for
- Cachoeira is Round 1 KO or bust. Milošević doesn't move her head off the center line much and is very hittable.
- Cachoeira could land a big shot and rock Milošević, bringing Milošević's line in.
- After getting hurt, Milošević may shoot for a takedown to recover and ride out the round on top. The window is after Cachoeira hurts her and before that takedown.
Live bet target: Milošević, especially if Cachoeira can't keep her down.
More on this fight: Cachoeira vs Milošević stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli
What to look for
- Raposo is very average at everything and can be very low volume. Degli is probably a little better everywhere.
- Raposo probably has the better cardio. Degli has the better power.
Live bet target: Degli, but only if he's doing visible damage.
More on this fight: Raposo vs Degli stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid
What to look for
- Art expects this to play out on the feet, and he favors Nakamura.
- Schmid is live to get knocked out at any point. In his losses he turned into a punching bag in the later rounds.
- If Schmid looks good early and the Nakamura line comes down, Nakamura can win on the live line.
- Nakamura has come back from losing positions to win late by KO in Rounds 2 and 3 (Art points to his fights against Sebastian Szalay and Eo Jin Park).
Live bet target: Nakamura, especially on a dip after a good early Schmid showing.
More on this fight: Nakamura vs Schmid stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Gabriel Lorenço vs Thomas Petersen
What to look for
- Lorenço's win equity is a first-round KO. He's a bit wild: lots of low kicks, and looping shots in close.
- Petersen needs takedowns, or to slow the fight down.
- If Petersen starts clinching or grappling right away in Round 1, live bet Petersen.
- Lorenço's cardio hasn't looked good in Rounds 2 and 3.
- If Petersen gets hurt early, you may get him at good plus money. As long as he survives, live bet him.
Live bet target: Petersen regardless.
More on this fight: Petersen vs Lorenço stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes
What to look for
- Art expects Silva to win Round 1 at a high clip: she gets a takedown, and that's probably the round.
- If Silva comes out slow, or her line dips because Fernandes is landing at range, live bet Silva before her first takedown.
- Silva tends to slow down late and could give up Round 3. She may also lose position hunting submissions.
- After Silva wins Round 1, Fernandes is probably the better live spot, especially if Fernandes looks like she's winning Round 2 or Silva struggles with takedowns.
- If Fernandes wins Round 1 and makes Silva work, testing her cardio, live bet Fernandes early.
Live bet target: Silva early, only on a dip before her first takedown. Otherwise Fernandes, since Silva fades late.
More on this fight: Silva vs Fernandes stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov
What to look for
- The fight comes down to Delano's takedown defense. The longer it stays on the feet, the more Delano picks Magomedov apart.
- Magomedov needs to grapple. Watch whether he can close the distance and get to Delano's hips, take Delano down, and hold him down. Delano has good get-ups: he prioritizes getting back to his feet and back to striking.
- If Magomedov works hard for a takedown but does no damage and Delano gets back up, live bet Delano, especially at a nice plus-money line.
- If Delano can't get up and Magomedov's top pressure is overwhelming (for example, easy takedowns while cruising on top in Round 1), live bet Magomedov in Round 2, since he would just repeat it.
Live bet target: Delano. The longer the fight goes, the more Art favors Delano.
More on this fight: Delano vs Magomedov stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon
What to look for
- Bashi was originally booked on this card, so he's ready for three rounds.
- Calderon is a scrambler and could get on top at some point, which would bring the Bashi line down.
Live bet target: Bashi, any time his line comes down to around -300 or another playable price. Be quick to take Bashi at the discount.
More on this fight: Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski
What to look for
- Art expects Kondratavičius to finish Petroski early, by KO in Round 1.
- Petroski's path is grappling: multiple takedowns and 8+ minutes of control. His wins look like decisions.
- If Petroski doesn't get early takedowns, he probably gets knocked out.
- If Petroski does get early takedowns, the Kondratavičius line probably drops toward a pick'em, and that's the spot to live bet Kondratavičius. He is always live to land as long as he has power left.
- Watch Kondratavičius' cardio. If Petroski gets 10+ minutes of control, Kondratavičius could lose power.
- Petroski's striking is too much of a liability to live bet him at all.
Live bet target: Kondratavičius, especially after an early Petroski takedown. He is the better live spot.
More on this fight: Kondratavičius vs Petroski stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman
What to look for
- Turman has been out almost three years. See how he looks early. If he looks slow right away, live bet Ko immediately.
- Ko can get takedowns, but he needs to engage in the clinch and land judo throws. If Turman looks stronger in the clinch, hold off. If Ko looks physically stronger, he can get there.
- Turman's takedown defense isn't great.
- Watch Turman off his back: he's live for submissions from the bottom (armbars), but Ko is likely aware of them and defends.
Live bet target: Ko, depending on how Round 1 goes.
More on this fight: Ko vs Turman stats breakdown · Tape Index film · Stats comparison
Jonny Parsons vs José Souza
What to look for
- Souza has the outside range advantage and the long-range weapons. The smaller cage helps Parsons close the distance.
- Look for Parsons' low kicks early. Parsons does a very good job of checking low kicks and throwing his own. With his huge reach disadvantage, low kicks are his easiest weapon without getting countered.
- Watch whether Souza has to switch stances because of the low kicks. If he does, consider live betting Parsons.
- Souza will likely land volume, but Parsons has a very good chin. Souza could hurt him and punch himself out.
- If Parsons survives into Round 2, consider live betting Parsons: he's on the front foot, doesn't go away, and his forward pressure could melt Souza. It depends on how Round 1 plays out.
Live bet target: Parsons, via leg kicks and overall pressure. Souza is expected to be on the back foot for most of the fight.
More on this fight: Parsons vs Souza stats breakdown · Tape Index film
Follow the card live: Art C's live betting, weekly tape study and every bet as it's placed are on Patreon.
- Every career bout on the card, with film: Tape Index
- Compare any two fighters: Matchups
- Fighting Stats' publicly tracked record: Results
- This week's card: Schedule
Live betting notes are for entertainment and informational purposes only. This is not betting advice. 21+ where legal. Gamble responsibly.