Posted in UFC
UFC290 Robbie Lawler vs Niko Price Breakdown and bets
 "UFC290 Robbie Lawler vs Niko Price Breakdown and bets")
Niko Price has been around for a while and has had an interesting UFC career, but it is still hard to gauge how good he really is. He often weaponizes his cardio, taking his opponents into deep waters, where he tends to have the better stamina. In almost every fight that gets to the third round, somebody is gassing hard. That, combined with the fact that Price comes forward after losing the first two rounds, makes him exciting. Price was down two rounds to Luque, Pereira, and Rowe, where he came forward in round three, almost finding the finish against Rowe and Pereira. He won the Alex Oliveira fight in the last 45 seconds, where Price found a takedown.
Price almost exclusively fights from an orthodox stance. He will rarely switch to Southpaw, where he will only throw a kick and quickly switch back to Orthodox. From orthodox, he uses a lot of 1-2s, which are close to 3-4s with how wide those punches come. He uses the jab, but it’s not really snappy, more something to keep the pace up. Overall, Price looks very slow, and almost in every fight he gets tagged early. He was slower than Rowe, even Alex Pereira, and Luque. Cerrone had his moments. Price’s latest UFC wins are over Alex Oliveira, who is no longer in the UFC; a draw with Cerrone after losing a point; and KOing the chinny James Vick (by upkick) and Tim Means. Not the most impressive resume. On the flip side, his losses are to legit competition in Luque, Pereira, and Rowe.
Price is 15-6 with only three fights going to decision, but those three were in his last four fights. I want to say that Price is looking like he’s slowing down, not having a ton of power on his strikes. He lacks speed and power, but has cardio and a decent chin and always moves forward.
Robbie Lawler is a legend still fighting at 41 years old and didn’t look bad in his last fight against Barberena. Lawler looked good and fast and actually won the first round. Similar to Price, Barberena has a good chin and keeps a crazy cardio pace. Lawler has actually fought a lot of volume guys recently as well. He absorbed 147 strikes from Barberena, 160 from Nick Diaz (three rounds), 62 from Magny, 179 from Covington, zero from Askren lol and 172 from RDA. Lawler is 2-6 in his last eight UFC fights, with two wins over a four-year layoff Nick Diaz and Donald Cerrone. So it’s a tough fight to call.
Lawler tried to come out looser in his last fight, light on his feet, but when it became a firefight, he reverted back to his old ways of brawling. Lawler started to move in and out of range, where he had previously stayed in the pocket and rolled with the punches.
Against the volume guys, Lawler was content with taking the volume early and shelling up while waiting to counter. He will eat four or five shots while trying to land one.
Lawler will have the power advantage, and I’d say even faster in round one. The only knock is the cardio of Lawler, but he actually looked fine against Colby who grappled him for five rounds. If RDA, Colby and Magny didn’t find the submission after having Lawler’s back, I doubt Price will get the submission.
- Lawler KO: 25%. I think the KO is live, especially in round one; it drops off a lot going into rounds two and three.
- Lawler sub: 0%. I don’t see it coming unless it’s a club-and-sub; Lawler doesn’t shoot for takedowns or hunt for submissions in top control.
- Lawler dec: 20%. He could win a decision if Price’s chin holds up; both guys could slow down and both guys’ chins are decent enough to be a firefight for rounds two and three and nobody goes down.
- Price KO: 25%. It has to be live, but more live as the fight goes on; especially in round three.
- Price sub: 5%. OK, I was going to say zero but don’t think Lawler gets submitted.
- Price dec: 25%. It could happen for Price; Price should win round three; he could lose round one and it comes down to round two. Lawler does a good job of rolling with the punches.
Bets to Consider:
- Draw
- Lawler KO round one
- Price KO round three
- Over 1.5 rounds and over 2.5 rounds
| Posted in:Sports bettorUFC290UFC |
UFC290 Yazmin Jauregui vs Denise Gomes Breakdown and bets
 "UFC290 Yazmin Jauregui vs Denise Gomes Breakdown and bets")
Yazmin Jauregui is a striker from Mexico. In one word, she is pressure. She always comes forward with pressure and volume. She can stay on the outside, but when she starts blitzing, it’s five or six punch combos with her head up in the air. She has no one-punch KO power, but more death by a thousand cuts. She has a couple of TKO wins where the ref jumps in. The stoppage will depend on the ref. She is open to getting countered when she’s blitzing. She got dropped by a counter by Nunes. For someone with the volume and pressure of Jauregui, her cardio looks fine, having gone to a decision with Lucindo and looking fine in round three.
However, we haven’t really seen her in a grappling-heavy fight yet. I have noticed that Jauregui wants nothing to do with the ground or clinch. She can defend a takedown well against the cage, or use the cage to pop back up.
Her top control is a result of defensive grappling, such as stopping a takedown, or landing a knockdown and following her opponent to the ground. From top control, she is only looking for ground-and-pound; I don’t see any submissions or top control. Cormier said she was looking for a more grappling-heavy game plan, but she doesn’t have the top control to keep an opponent down; she prioritizes damage.
Jauregui would do well against a low-volume striker; it would be 50/50 against a power counter-striker like Lucindo. She might be in trouble against a true grappler. The assumption is that her striking is levels better than her ground game. We haven’t seen her off her back yet.
After watching Jauregui, I saw many holes in her striking and the grappling is a question mark, but there’s no doubt that Jauregui will be the faster striker. Gomes has a little bit of power, but she will be slower. Both girls are easily countered and leave their chins in the air. Both girls also usually come forward and don’t really move backwards.
Gomes has been using a more grappling-heavy approach since her UFC career, which could be a result of facing better competition. She kept trying for the takedown against Loma, when Loma was clearly the faster fighter.
For Jauregui to win, she could stay on the outside and pick Gomes apart, but that’s not really her game; I expect her to do that for the first minute, but when Jauregui goes forward with volume and blitzing she could do damage. It likely doesn’t go to decision if they stand and bang; someone will get countered.
For Gomes to win, she could implement a grappling game plan of clinching and top control. Jauregui stays away from any grappling, so I can see Gomes being the stronger girl against the fence and getting a takedown; from top position, it will be a lot of stalling with Gomes looking for a submission, but not finding it.
Gomes off her back doesn’t really attack submissions other than leg locks or kimuras to defend the grappling. Because Jauregui won’t grapple, I don’t think the kimura will be there. Gomes has a decent chin, but it’s not about the one-punch KO power because Jauregui doesn’t have one-punch KO power; the TKO will come from volume or ground-and-pound after a knockdown.
- Jauregui TKO: 35%
- Jauregui sub: 0%
- Jauregui dec: 25%
- Gomes TKO: 15%
- Gomes sub: 10%
- Gomes dec: 15%
Official Bet: Jauregui/Gomes u2.5 rounds +131, $500 to win $655
| Posted in:Sports bettorUFC290UFC |
UFC290 Jalin Turner vs Dan Hooker Breakdown and Best Bets
 "UFC290 Jalin Turner vs Dan Hooker Breakdown and Best Bets")
UFC290 Jalen Turner vs Dan Hooker: A clash of styles and stances
The lightweight division is one of the most exciting and competitive in the UFC, and two of its contenders are set to face off in July. Jalen Turner and Dan Hooker were originally scheduled to fight in March, but the bout was postponed due to Hooker’s broken hand. Now, both fighters have had more time to recover and study each other, which could make for a fascinating matchup.
Turner and Hooker have very different physical attributes and fighting styles. Turner is a towering 6’3" southpaw with a 77-inch reach, while Hooker is a 6’0" orthodox fighter with a 75-inch reach. Turner likes to use his long limbs to keep his opponents at bay and land powerful left crosses and high kicks. Hooker prefers to mix it up with punches, elbows, knees and leg kicks, and has a knack for finding openings in his opponent’s defense.
The fight could be decided by how well each fighter can adapt to the other’s stance and range. Hooker has fought 5 southpaws in his last 6 fights, but he has also struggled more against them, going 3-3 in his UFC career. Hooker will have to close the distance and avoid Turner’s straight left hand, which he throws 16% of the time (the most of any strike). He will also have to watch out for Turner’s left high kick, which he throws 15.7% of the time (the second most).
Turner, on the other hand, will have to deal with Hooker’s leg kicks, which he throws 21% of the time (the second most of any strike). Turner has shown a weakness in checking or avoiding leg kicks, absorbing 46 of 48 leg strikes thrown for 96% of them over his last five fights. Hooker has landed 81% of the 78 leg kicks thrown over his last six fights, and has done well against other southpaws with his inside low kick. If Hooker can chop down Turner’s legs and limit his movement, he could slow down his offense and create openings for his own strikes.
Another factor that could play a role in the fight is grappling. Hooker has shown more willingness to shoot for takedowns than Turner, especially against strikers. Over his last six fights, Hooker has attempted 16 takedowns and secured 6:35 of top control time, compared to Turner’s four takedown attempts and 1:54 of top control time over his last five fights. Hooker could use his wrestling to take Turner down and neutralize his reach advantage, or to threaten with submissions and force scrambles.
However, Hooker is nowhere near the grappler Gamrot is and Gamrot still struggled going 4/12 on takedown attempts. Hooker may find some success getting Turner to the mat, but Hooker’s 0.3 submission average, means that Turner will likely survive the ground and get back to his feet. In addition, Turner’s long limps makes the guillotine a danger for Hooker if he leaves his neck out on the takedown attempts. Turner does not proactively look to grapple, but he will defensively wrestle and jump a neck if it presents itself.
However, grappling is not without risks for Hooker. Turner has a 100% finish rate in his career, with 69% of his wins coming by TKO and 31% by submission.
Overall, I think Hooker’s success relies heavily on either a leg kick heavy gameplan or multiple takedowns and control time, both of which are paths to a decision win. Turner is still improving and has been sparring with Kamzat Chimaev after his loss to Gamrot. I expect Turner to find a finish, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Turner win his first decision.
Jalin Turner vs Dan Hooker Best Bets
Breakdown:
- STRIKING: i give a small edge to Turner. Longer reach and more varied attacks. Hooker is good at his standard combos, 32, jabs and rear high and low kicks. Turner is more creative with his strikes mixing in a variety of strikes.
- TAKEDOWNS: edge to hooker simply from having success in winning fights with it. Turner has not initiated the grappling but can turn his defensive wrestling offensive, but will sink in the sub if the opportunity presents itself. Hooker is more likely to initiate the TDs, however, turners length may pose a problem to hooker trying to close the distance
- GRAPPLING: hooker will use more top position if he gets the fight to the ground. Doesn't really fish for subs or pass guard
- CARDIO: turner has a shorter average fight time, but looked fine in a 3 roudn grappling fight against gamrot, whereas when hooker starts to get hit, he really slows down, losing a lot of power into the later round
- CHIN: Edge to turner, simply because we haven't seen him really get rocked yet. He's taken some clean shots and been ok. Hooker has been in some wars. After the Poirer beating, Hooker has allowed 3 first-round stoppages in his last 3 losses (some are justified by Allen / Chandler / Islam)
- IMPROVEMENT: has to go to Turner who keeps improving fight after fight. Hooker looks to be past his prime. Although training with Izzy and Volk should keep him competitive
- Hooker WINS by mixing in the wrestling and grappling, getting and keeping some top control, while also staying competitive on the feet. Hooker could also implement a leg kick heavy game plan
- Turner WINS turner will have to play the striking game and stay on the outside. Turners looked great against other strikers in Uros Medic, Mullarky, riddel (was quick), but lost to frevola
Breakdown:
- Turner KO: 30%
- Turner Sub: 10%
- Turner Dec: 25%
- Hooker KO: 15%
- Hooker Sub: 0%
- Hooker Dec: 20%
Translates to:
- Turner ML -186 or better
This fight promises to be a thrilling clash of styles and stances, with both fighters having strengths and weaknesses that could be exploited by the other. Who will emerge victorious? Tune in on July 8th to find out!
| Posted in:UFC290UFC |
UFC290 Brendon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno vs Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja Detailed Breakdown and Best Bets
 "UFC290 Brendon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno vs Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja Detailed Breakdown and Best Bets")
The UFC Flyweight Championship is on the line at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada in the co-main event on July 8, 2023. Current Champion, Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno will look to defend his belt against top contender Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja.
Brandon Moreno is the reigning and two-time UFC flyweight champion and one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. The 29-year-old Mexican, nicknamed “The Assassin Baby”, has a professional record of 21 wins, 6 losses and 2 draws, with 16 of his victories coming by knockout or submission. Moreno made history in June 2021 when he became the first Mexico-born champion in the UFC by defeating Deiveson Figueiredo in a rematch at UFC 263. He defended his title for the second time in January 2023, when he stopped Figueiredo again by TKO due to a doctor’s stoppage at UFC 283.
However, Moreno is 0-2 in fights against Pantoja, with the first matchup back on the The Ultimate Fighter Season 24, where Moreno was the last fighter to be picked and Pantoja was the first fighter to be picked. Expecting an easy fight, Moreno actually won round 1 before losing by submission in round 2. Because this was considered an “Exhibition Bout”, this is not considered an official loss on Moreno’s record. Moreno has greatly improved since his appearance on the Ultimate Fighter in 2016.
Alexandre Pantoja is one of the top contenders in the UFC flyweight division and a former champion of Resurrection Fighting Alliance and Shooto Brazil. The 33-year-old Brazilian, known as “The Cannibal”, has a professional record of 25 wins, 5 losses and no draws, with 18 of his victories coming by knockout or submission. Pantoja entered the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions, where he reached the semifinals. He has since won nine fights in the promotion, including notable wins over Brandon Moreno, Wilson Reis and Ulka Sasaki. Pantoja earned his first UFC title shot by submitting Alex Perez in just 91 seconds at UFC 277 on July 30, 2022.
- UFC: 290
- UFC 290 Date: Saturday, July 8, 2023
- When is UFC 290?: 10:00 pm ET
- Where is UFC 290?: T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas, NV
- TV Channel: Pay Per View
- UFC Main Event: Alex Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez
- UFC Stats: Brendon Moreno 21-6-2 | Alexandre Pantoja 25-5-0
- UFC 290: Moreno (-170) | Pantoja (+145)
UFC 290: Moreno vs Pantoja Predictions and Picks
The first thing to note is that Pantoja has never been past round 3 and has shown he can slow down later in fights like in round 3 against Figueiredo in 2019, or round 2 of the Askar Askarov fight. In his most recent fights against Perez, Pantoja came in like a wrecking ball landing 8 of 12 strikes thrown in the first 20 seconds of the fight before getting the takedown and submission. For Pantoja I worry about if he can keep up that pace for 25 minutes knowing that Brandon Moreno has been scheduled to go 25 minutes in each of his last 5 fights and one of Moreno’s weapons is his cardio and the pace that he can keep. It’s also worth noting that outside of the exhibition submission loss to Pantoja in 2016, Brandon Moreno has never been finished in his 29 professional fights. This includes the 1.3 hours of fighting with Deiveson Figueiredo who has a finish rate of 85% amongst his wins and is probably one of the hardest hitters at Flyweight.
Pantoja does have 8 KO wins, but is known more for his high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (BJJ), with 40% of his wins coming by submission. On one side, Moreno has never been finished and only 3% of his total analyzed fight time and 20% of total time grappling was spent on his back. On the other side, Moreno has not faced anyone with Pantoja’s level of BJJ since their last fight in 2018. Over his UFC career, Moreno has shown a Takedown defense of only 67%, so there is a path to victory for Pantoja through grappling.
Does Pantoja have what it takes to become Champion?
Striking-wise, both fighters stand in orthodox, with a combined 0.1% of their time in southpaw stance, meaning the rear outside leg kicks are open. Both Moreno and Pantoja both throw the rear low kick 7% of the time, but the difference being Moreno throws the rear high kick only 0.67%, whereas Pantoja is closer to 17%. This is a big discrepancy, but will probably continue into this fight noting that if Moreno throws the high kick, it will open him up to get the kick caught and taken down. I expect a heavier kicking game from Pantoja where he throws 2.18 kicks per minute, compared to 0.64 from Moreno.
In terms of striking variety, Pantoja can be pretty basic, with 62% of his total strikes either a jab, cross or a jab-cross (1-2). Moreno seems like more of a head-hunter with 85% of strikes thrown towards the head compared to 76% by Pantoja, which I think is more of a by-product of Pantoja’s 10% leg target percentage, compared to 5% from Moreno.
Free UFC Picks — UFC Best Bets For UFC 290: Volkanovski vs Rodriguez
Overall, this fight will depend on the pace that Pantoja chooses to come out with. If he comes out hot like he has in his most recent fights, I question how he will look after round 2 when he can’t put away Moreno who has never been finished and been in numerous 5 round fights. If we assume the fight goes 5 rounds, I think Moreno should be a clear favourite to win rounds 3, 4 and 5. So even if the first 2 rounds are fairly close, I think Moreno will start to pull away later in the fight. Pantoja’s best path to victory would be an early takedown or a back take, but as the fight goes on, I think the chances of this drop. For Moreno, I think he just needs to push a pace early. If it stays standing maybe creating forward pressure and forcing Pantoja to move backward, which also makes the takedown attempts harder. Or if there are early grappling exchanges, to create scrambles and make Pantoja grapple early. Into the later rounds a Moreno finish is live. My prediction is Brandon Moreno wins by unanimous decision. Here’s my breakdown of the fight:
- Moreno by TKO: 20%
- Moreno by sub: 10%
- Moreno by decision: 35%
- Pantoja by TKO: 5%
- Pantoja by Submission: 20%
- Pantoja by decision: 10%
Which translates to:
- Brandon Moreno moneyline: -186 or better
- Alexandre Pantoja moneyline: +186 or better
- Fight goes to decision: +122 or better
- Fight does not go to decision: -122 or better
- Moreno by TKO / Pantoja by sub: +400 or better
| Posted in:Sports bettorUFC290UFCBrendon MorenoAlexandre Pantoja |
UFC290 Bo Nickal vs Tresean “Mr. Vicious” Gore Detailed Breakdown and Best Bets
 "UFC290 Bo Nickal vs Tresean “Mr. Vicious” Gore Detailed Breakdown and Best Bets")
Two rising stars in the middleweight division will collide at UFC 290 on July 8 in Las Vegas. Bo Nickal, a three-time NCAA wrestling champion and undefeated MMA fighter, will take on Tresean Gore, a former contestant on The Ultimate Fighter and a dangerous finisher.
Bo Nickal (4-0) is one of the most highly touted prospects in the sport. The 27-year-old made his UFC debut in March, submitting Jamie Pickett with an arm triangle choke in the first round. Nickal has finished all of his opponents in the first round, with three submissions and one knockout. A former Penn State wrestler, Nickal has transitioned seamlessly to MMA, showing impressive striking and grappling skills.
Tresean Gore (4-2) is coming off his first UFC win, a second-round guillotine choke over Josh Fremd in October. The 28-year-old earned his way into the promotion by competing on The Ultimate Fighter 29, where he reached the semifinals. Three of Gore’s last four wins have come by stoppage.
This fight promises to be an exciting and explosive clash between two hungry and talented fighters. Who will emerge victorious and move closer to a title shot? Find out at UFC 290 on July 8, live on pay-per-view.
- UFC: 290
- UFC 290 Date: Saturday, July 8, 2023
- When is UFC 290?: 10:00 pm ET
- Where is UFC 290?: T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas, NV
- TV Channel: Pay Per View
- UFC Main Event: Alex Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez
- UFC Stats: Bo Nickal 4-0-0 | Tresean Gore 4-2-0
- UFC 290: Nickal (-1000) | Gore (+800)
UFC 290: Bo Nickal vs Tresean Gore Predictions and Picks
Bo Nickal is the biggest favourite of the card at a whopping -1000, and to be honest, the odds make sense. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say:
- Bo Nickal has 321 seconds of professional MMA experience, which is barely a full round
- In those 321 seconds, 89 seconds (28%) has been standing, where he has thrown 13 total strikes
- 208 seconds (65%) of his total fight time has been on the ground, will all of the ground time in top position
- Bo Nickal has NEVER been hit in the face, and has only been hit 1 time to the body, in his Professional Career
The good news for Treasean Gore is that his numbers show an 81% takedown defense with only 23 seconds of ground bottom time. The bad news is that Gilbert Urbina, Bryan Battle, Cody Brundage and not very good and nowhere near the level of wrestler Bo Nickal is.
So this fight is pretty straight forward, but has a lot of unknowns.
Will Bo Nickal shoot for a Takedown or keep the fight standing?
I think it would be one of the worst decisions to try and stand with Tresean Gore, who’s best chance to win is landing a big shot. So yes, Bo Nickal will very likely shoot for a takedown.
Will Bo Nickal successfully get a takedown?
Most likely yes. Gore is pretty strong, but we’ve seen him get taken down by a lot worse than Bo Nickal.
Now here are the tricky questions.
How is Bo Nickal’s striking?
It looks like it’s improving and you would like a wrestler should be training his striking between camps. With that said, he’s only thrown 13 total strikes. He knocked out John Noland with one of those punches, but he also threw two rear high kicks from southpaw (left high kick), where he threw himself off balance and onto his butt without getting touched. So there are things he could work on.
Can Tresean Gore land a big shot before he gets taken down? And How will Bo Nickal respond?
There’s that famous quote, everybody has a gameplan until they are hit in the face. Bo Nickal has never been hit in the head. He could have the glassiest chin ever, or it could be made of granite. We don’t know. It’s possible Gore lands right away and Bo goes down. Possible, but not very likely.
Can Tresean defend the takedown or at least get back up?
Gore with an 81% takedown defense and pretty strong, but again against what kind of competition? We’ve seen when Gore does attempt to get back up, he gives up his back. We saw this against Brundage and Battle. Bo is too good, to let Gore get up after giving up his back. I can see Bo getting his hooks in quickly and bringing Gore back down. If Bo, jumps the back and gets the hooks in with enough time to work, Bo is likely going to find the rear naked choke.
Can Tresean Gore survive on the ground?
This may come down to fight IQ, and if and how Gore attempts to get up and give up a bad position. The smarted play by Gore might be to just accept he will get taken down, but when he gets to full guard, keep his guard close, control the posture to limit the amount of damage he has to take in round 1 and survive to round 2, where the fight starts on the feet again.
How will Bo Nickal look in the second round?
Who knows? We can assume his cardio is decent from his wrestling credentials, but we don’t actually know. He only fought for 1 round total. If Gore can take Bo to the deep waters, it’s possible Bo gases, and if Bo can’t get the takedown because he’s too tired, it’s possible he gets finished. Is it likely? Again, probably not.
So is Bo Nickal a good bet?
Some books have Bo Nickal as high as -1400 which is an implied 93%. At -1000 it’s still 91%. Meaning if Bo Nickal and Tresean Gore fought 10 times, Bo would need to win at least 9 times to break even. So it’s hard to recommend a play on the steep moneyline. What’s interesting is that -1000 is actually the cheapest Bo has been. Bo Nickal has been -3000 in his first 2 UFC fights against Borrego and Beard, and was still -1650 in his last outing against Jamie Pickett. Now it’s a little crazy to say, but Bo did still “cover” those prices, meaning that the fights looked like massive mismatches and Bo did whatever he want. While, I think Bo Nickal cruises and easily beats Tresean Gore, there are too many unknowns in Bo’s cardio, striking defense and fight IQ to recommend a play at -1000.
What should I bet?
If you want action on this fight, I would look towards the value on prop bets. Bets like Bo moneyline can be a lot cheaper, by betting Bo by submission (hit the last 3 fights) or Bo wins in round 1 (hit last 4 fights). The play will depend on the odds given, but given the fact that those have hit a lot, I’d assume the opening lines would be too expensive for me to get involved. Even if you think Tresean Gore has a chance at winning at +800, I’d still look for added value in props such as, Gore by knockout, or Gore by submission. It would be crazy to see Gore win by decision.
Here's the lines I’m looking for:
Bo Nickal by knockout: 30%
Bo Nickal by submission: 50%
Bo Nickal by decision: 10%
Gore by knockout: 5%
Gore by submission: 5%
Gore by decision: 0%
Which translates to:
Bo Nickal moneyline: -900 or better
Bo Nickal by submission: +100 or better
Bo Nickal by knockout: +233 or better
Gore by TKO: +1900 or better
Fight ends Inside the Distance: -900 or better
| Posted in:Sports bettorUFC290UFC |
